Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Election 2010: Oh, How Far the GOP Will Go?!

1994 was somewhat of a surprise.

While many Republicans expected the US Senate to swing to the GOP, not many people expected the party to retake of the US House of Representatives, which hadn’t been under Republican control since the early days of the Eisenhower Administration.

Though only 16 years removed, the world was a very different place. Information mainly flowed through newspapers, radio and television, with the internet being a novelty with rough graphics and slow speed.

But things are different now. Competition in the cable news realm and the expansion of their reach has denied the networks of their de facto monopoly of news on election night. Election results are posted real-time in some states and polling data is readily available from news and politics sites, with the most prominent being Real Clear Politics.

Political junkies in New Jersey can easily follow a US House race in Mississippi.

If video killed the radio star, than the internet ruined the surprise.

Now the political party on the ropes can hear the Jaws music playing as the dorsal fin advances towards the victim.

2010 will be the reverse of 1994. The US House of Representatives has been conceded to the GOP for weeks now, with only polished liars from the Democratic end arguing otherwise. They encourage their most die-hard supporters to stand, like Linus from Peanuts, in the pumpkin patch (or National Mall), awaiting the big surprise.

The problem for the Democrats is that the surprise took place just under two years ago after the American public that had voted in the presidential election with their dreams and aspirations without bother reading the fine print learned that Barack Obama had more than magic and rainbows in store for country.

While fudging on the details during the campaign, Obama promised change and by the eternal, he delivered much of it.

The American electorate was much like a tourist visiting a foreign country who opted to order something in a restaurant from a menu written in a language he did not comprehend. And when the toursit saw what the waiter brought out was not what he intended to order, the exasperated tourist sent it back, this time making a point to spell out EXACTLY what they wanted.

That’s precisely what’s going to happen on Tuesday. Steak-hungry voters are sending back Obama’s goulash that they have no intention of paying for.
In 2008, the voters wanted their spirits raised; in 2010, they want government spending lowered.

The Races


Right now, Republicans are projected to win governorships in states where the GOP has been shut out for eight years or more. The Great Lakes states of Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan are expected to elect Republicans on Tuesday, which are key battleground states in presidential elections. Iowa, Maine and New Mexico are also expected to elect Republican gubernatorial candidates to succeed Democrats.

Gubernatorial contests in Oregon, Massachusetts and Colorado have been classified as toss-ups, though Democrats hold the edge in recent poll numbers.

US House of Representatives

Perhaps Nancy Pelosi should consider making a cameo in the sequel to Zombieland as she’s technically already dead…at least as speaker.

District poll numbers have shown a likely take over of the 435-member chamber for weeks now, with the only question being the margin of control Republicans will possess.

Democrats have only three Republican seats in play. On the other side of the aisle, Republicans are effectively challenging six-dozen Democratic seats. Hardly an equal trade.

The GOP’s floor is a net 50 and their peak is a net 80; Republicans only need to net 40 seats to attain a majority. In addition to gain control of half of Congress, Republican candidates are in a position to knock out a few prominent Democrats, including Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank.

US Senate

The election of Scott Brown in Massachusetts marked the first chip in the Democratic senate majority. There are going to be a lot more chips on Tuesday, with the question being will it be enough to attain 51 seats, since Vice-President Joe Biden would provide the tie-breaker for his party.

There are no Republican seats in the US Senate that are vulnerable while on the Democratic side, their majority leader might suffer an ignominious defeat at the hand of a TEA Partier.

The poll numbers have been contracting in the GOP’s favor over Halloween weekend. Pennsylvania, Washington State, West Virginia, California, Nevada, Illinois and Colorado are within reach by either party, though Republicans are expected to win most of them.

The GOP will have to win six of the aforementioned seven to win a majority. Democrats may retain control by a narrow margin or via tie. The big question is whether the Republican voter enthusiasm and momentum to close the margins. Even though Republicans won’t win in Connecticut and Delaware, closer than projected races could serve as an omen in races where Republicans either hold a slight advantage or are trailing the Democrats by the margin of error.

Also keep in mind as that much of Washington State votes by mail, it could be weeks before we find out which party controls the US Senate. I should also add that Washington State also has a bad past when it comes to close elections.

You’ve been warned.



GOP wins a majority of the governorships with 30, the US House of Representatives with a swing of 73 seats and the US Senate by one after Washington State finally provides its numbers in an environment of voter fraud allegations and missing ballots.


US Senator Vitter 55% Melancon 42% Others 3%

Lieutenant Governor Dardenne 57% Fayard 43%

Second Congressional District Richmond 52% Cao 45% Others 3%

Third Congressional District Landry 62% Sangisetty 38%

1 comment:

oyster said...

I'd be shocked if the Dardenne Fayard margin was wider than the Vitter/Melancon margin, as you predict.

Here are my lines and picks