On February 28th, the 2012 race for the Republican presidential nomination could experience its biggest twist yet.
On that day, Michigan and Arizona will hold their primaries. Twelve years ago, the two states threw a curve ball to George W. Bush’s bid for the party nod.
Prior to those contests, Bush had just recovered from a major setback in New Hampshire, where Arizona US Senator John McCain drubbed him by 18 points, with big wins in Delaware and the media-mega-hyped state of South Carolina.
Bush had hoped to finish off McCain by embarrassing the party maverick in his home state, where the Texas governor had the backing of Governor Jane Dee Hull and in Michigan, where his campaign was led by popular governor John Engler.
Engler was motivated by more than just “team spirit” in his quest to deliver his state to Bush as he was anxiously hoping to increase his odds of landing the bottom spot of the GOP ticket.
But the best laid plans went awry for Bush that evening.
McCain won Arizona with 60% of the vote and carried Michigan by a seven points.
Karl Rove, the architect of George W. Bush’s political life, considered the Michigan setback a “problem” in particular.
However, Bush survived the tandem embarrassments, won the next few contests and forced McCain out of the race by Super Tuesday.
Oh, Engler did not become vice-president.
The question in 2012 is can Mitt Romney survive the indignity of losing in one of his several “home” states?
That the former Massachusetts governor has a Michigan problem is surprising. But maybe not so much after his Iowa, South Carolina, Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota problems.
The most recent polling data paint a bleak picture for the son of one of the state’s past governors.
Former Pennsylvania US Senator Rick Santorum has leads ranging between 3 and 15 points over Romney in recent Michigan polls. While Romney’s unofficial “fan club” will try their damndest to move the numbers, the Cain Capital executive is looking at no better than a weak plurality over Santorum in Michigan as a best-case Pyrrhic scenario.
Things are looking relatively rosier for Romney in the southwest, where he has an eight-point lead on Santurom in the latest Rasmussen poll. The bad news for Team Romney is that their candidate enjoyed a 24 point lead only a few weeks ago. Like the racehorse Seabiscuit, Santorum is charging quickly from the back…much like he did in every other state he has thus far won.
Now let’s assume for a moment that February 28th is a split decision, with Santorum winning Michigan while Romney sneaks out with a modest lead.
That might still be enough to cripple the viability of Romney’s campaign. But beyond that discussion, there’s a story being lost in the shuffle that could be more important than the public relations victory of “winning” a state.
Delegates.
Arizona has declared itself to be a “winner take all state”, meaning all of their 29 delegates will be awarded to the candidate who comes out on top. The reason why a large growing state like Arizona has so few delegates is that they opted to hold their primary in February, before the date allowed per the Republican National Committee’s rules and were thus penalized half of their delegates.
RNC Rule 15 Section B Subsection 1 lays out that “no primary, caucus, or convention to elect, select, allocate, or bind delegates shall occur prior to the first Tuesday in March in the year in which a national convention is held.” The rule exempts Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, the latter state being the only one that was in compliance.
Subsection 2 of RNC Rule 15 Section B states “Any presidential primary, caucus, convention, or other meeting held for the purpose of selecting delegates to the national convention which occurs prior to the first day of April in the year which the national convention is held, shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis.”
Pretty straightforward.
Former US House of Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich announced he would challenge Florida’s “winner take all” policy after Romney comfortably triumphed in the Sunshine State. Under the Florida GOP’s interpretation, Romney would receive all 50 delegates though under the RNC’s proportional mandate, he would garner just under half while Gingrich and the other candidates would receive a share.
Expect Arizona’s flagrant double violations of RNC rules to be brought up no matter who receives a plurality in that contest.
Unlike the “leap frogging” matter, which comes with a stated penalty, the allocation controversy will be settled by simply forcing the states in violation to bend to the national party’s rules. The states in violation are under the assumption that the “half off penalty” gives them immunity to award their discounted delegates in any way they see fit.
It doesn’t.
If a candidate wraps up the party nomination before May by either forcing out the other candidates sans Texas US Representative Ron Paul or racking up an insurmountable delegate lead, the matter will be resolved within the boring and mundane confines of rules committee hearings with the net result not even causing a ripple in the final delegate count.
However, if the brokered convention scenario gets played out, the delegate allocation scofflaws will find themselves front and center in the middle of an internationally broadcast legal battle.
And when considering the Republican Party has already endured three caucus vote-counting controversies before Super Tuesday, closing the delegate selection process on that note won’t leave a good taste in the mouths of the November electorate.
Monday, February 20, 2012
Sunday, February 12, 2012
CPAC 2012 Notebook
WASHINGTON- A few notes from the annual gathering of conservatives (which includes many college students) in the Beltway.
Mitt Wins (Buys?) Straw Poll- Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has once again won the CPAC straw poll, after losing the last two to Texas US Representative Ron Paul. Romney had prevailed in the 2007, 2008 and 2009 CPAC straw polls, emerging on top in 2008 despite ending his presidential bid at that event.
Former US Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania has alleged that Romney's team had "bought" the win by purchasing registrations for attendees committed to vote for their candidate. Such a tactic is not unheard of as Paul has been known to "invest" in these non official contests. Romney blatantly engaged in "straw poll herding" at the 2010 Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans.
Romney received 38% to Santorum's 31%. Though not a victory, Santorum's second place showing marked a vast improvement from his 2011 tenth place finish with 2%.
Former US House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia placed a distant third with 15% and Paul in fourth with 12%, a sign of Paul's decision to spend his money in Maine and not CPAC.
Newt's "Soprano" Picture- During Gingrich's address at CPAC, a striking black-and-white image of him flanked by the members of his self-titled "Dream Team" of high profile supporters was shown as a backdrop. The visual, which resembled a Sopranos DVD set cover, was produced by his campaign and distributed in handbill version at his campaign booth.
The Ex-Speaker's Speaker Line-Up- In another creative flyer distribution, the Gingrich camp handed out "CPAC Daily Schedules" to attendees though a closer inspection revealed some commentary. While the flyer's header had the CPAC logo, so as to make it appear official, and the times of the speeches were accurate, some jabs were snuck in on Gingrich's rivals and one commentator.
For example, next to Santorum's name were the words "in defense of big labor" while next to Romney's name appeared the words "author of Obamney Care". Pundit and latter-day Romney supporter Ann Coulter also caught some heat, as "Three Cheers for RomeyCare" was listed by he speaking slot. The bottom of the flyer cited that it was paid for by Gingrich's campaign.
The CPAC Ground Game- - Both Gingrich and Santorum had booths at the conference though Romney and Paul passed on setting up a table, a little odd considering the money they have spent on CPAC in the past. Santorum had an impressive demonstration of support as there were hundreds of attendees, surprisingly mainly young people, sporting lapel stickers and a few wearing Santorum's trademark water vests (which ere for sale at a discount at his campaign table).
Romney had a significantly smaller visible presence though apparently enough quiet backing to win the straw poll.
Battleground Wisconsin- Though not as high profile as former Alaska governor Sarah Palin's close out address, embattled Wisconsin governor Scott Walker was given an opportunity to pitch for help from conservatives at the Friday night banquet speaker. Focusing his remarks exclusively on his state, Walker argued that the Let's attempt to remove him from office is more than simply "Wisconsin issue" and that the result will either embolden Big Labor or Republican state executives dealing with union related legislation. If Walker survives the recall and then reelection in 2014, you can expect the leading nemesis of the unions to be part of the 2016 or 2020 conversation.
Mitt Wins (Buys?) Straw Poll- Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has once again won the CPAC straw poll, after losing the last two to Texas US Representative Ron Paul. Romney had prevailed in the 2007, 2008 and 2009 CPAC straw polls, emerging on top in 2008 despite ending his presidential bid at that event.
Former US Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania has alleged that Romney's team had "bought" the win by purchasing registrations for attendees committed to vote for their candidate. Such a tactic is not unheard of as Paul has been known to "invest" in these non official contests. Romney blatantly engaged in "straw poll herding" at the 2010 Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans.
Romney received 38% to Santorum's 31%. Though not a victory, Santorum's second place showing marked a vast improvement from his 2011 tenth place finish with 2%.
Former US House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia placed a distant third with 15% and Paul in fourth with 12%, a sign of Paul's decision to spend his money in Maine and not CPAC.
Newt's "Soprano" Picture- During Gingrich's address at CPAC, a striking black-and-white image of him flanked by the members of his self-titled "Dream Team" of high profile supporters was shown as a backdrop. The visual, which resembled a Sopranos DVD set cover, was produced by his campaign and distributed in handbill version at his campaign booth.
The Ex-Speaker's Speaker Line-Up- In another creative flyer distribution, the Gingrich camp handed out "CPAC Daily Schedules" to attendees though a closer inspection revealed some commentary. While the flyer's header had the CPAC logo, so as to make it appear official, and the times of the speeches were accurate, some jabs were snuck in on Gingrich's rivals and one commentator.
For example, next to Santorum's name were the words "in defense of big labor" while next to Romney's name appeared the words "author of Obamney Care". Pundit and latter-day Romney supporter Ann Coulter also caught some heat, as "Three Cheers for RomeyCare" was listed by he speaking slot. The bottom of the flyer cited that it was paid for by Gingrich's campaign.
The CPAC Ground Game- - Both Gingrich and Santorum had booths at the conference though Romney and Paul passed on setting up a table, a little odd considering the money they have spent on CPAC in the past. Santorum had an impressive demonstration of support as there were hundreds of attendees, surprisingly mainly young people, sporting lapel stickers and a few wearing Santorum's trademark water vests (which ere for sale at a discount at his campaign table).
Romney had a significantly smaller visible presence though apparently enough quiet backing to win the straw poll.
Battleground Wisconsin- Though not as high profile as former Alaska governor Sarah Palin's close out address, embattled Wisconsin governor Scott Walker was given an opportunity to pitch for help from conservatives at the Friday night banquet speaker. Focusing his remarks exclusively on his state, Walker argued that the Let's attempt to remove him from office is more than simply "Wisconsin issue" and that the result will either embolden Big Labor or Republican state executives dealing with union related legislation. If Walker survives the recall and then reelection in 2014, you can expect the leading nemesis of the unions to be part of the 2016 or 2020 conversation.
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Election 2012: Game Reset
After poor finishes in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida and a last place showing only a few days ago in Nevada, former Pennsylvania Rick Santorum stormed back into the presidential race with a big win in the Missouri primary and receiving strong support in the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses.
And though the Missouri contest is a so-called "beauty contest" as there are no delegates at stake, Santorum's lopsided margin over ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is a signal of conservatives' dissatisfaction and distrust of the presumed GOP frontrunner.
With former US House of Representatives Newt Gingrich not on the Show Me State's primary ballot, Santorum's win demonstrated what happens when the conservative vote is not split.
And the results are not "pretty" for Romney...or for Gingrich for that matter.
Santorum wisely diverted himself and his limited resources from Florida, giving Gingrich a clear shot at Romney in Florida. And Romney won big.
Spin doctors have tried to paint Santorum's Missouri upset as the result of the time the social conservative has spent stumping there.
No interpretation of what happened could be more absurd.
Making a handful of personal appearances does not translate into a landslide. Strong debate performances and solid conservative credentials in relation to his opponents have far more to do with Santorum's impressive Missouri win.
And as Romney is a well.financed national candidate who has racked up two consecutive high-profile wins in the past week, he has no excuse for faring so poorly.
Tuesday night was not only a reset of the fight for the Republican presidential nomination but a referendum on Romney.
And though the Missouri contest is a so-called "beauty contest" as there are no delegates at stake, Santorum's lopsided margin over ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is a signal of conservatives' dissatisfaction and distrust of the presumed GOP frontrunner.
With former US House of Representatives Newt Gingrich not on the Show Me State's primary ballot, Santorum's win demonstrated what happens when the conservative vote is not split.
And the results are not "pretty" for Romney...or for Gingrich for that matter.
Santorum wisely diverted himself and his limited resources from Florida, giving Gingrich a clear shot at Romney in Florida. And Romney won big.
Spin doctors have tried to paint Santorum's Missouri upset as the result of the time the social conservative has spent stumping there.
No interpretation of what happened could be more absurd.
Making a handful of personal appearances does not translate into a landslide. Strong debate performances and solid conservative credentials in relation to his opponents have far more to do with Santorum's impressive Missouri win.
And as Romney is a well.financed national candidate who has racked up two consecutive high-profile wins in the past week, he has no excuse for faring so poorly.
Tuesday night was not only a reset of the fight for the Republican presidential nomination but a referendum on Romney.
Monday, February 6, 2012
Election 2012: Nevada Notebook and Stories
Here are a few random notes from the dusty desert trail...
Paul the Romantic Warrior Three days before the caucuses, Texas Congressman Ron Paul held a press conference at the Four Seasons in Las Vegas. At the media event, Paul gave a particularly parochial speech spending as much time on local matters as he typically spends decrying the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, foreign aid had the US monetary system.
Paul declared his opposition to depositing nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, the delays by the federal government in granting tourist visas (important to a state economy heavily dependent on foreign visitors) and not taxing tips (important to waiters, bar maids and strippers- important segments of the Clark County electorate).
At the conclusion of the media event, Paul presented his wife Carol with a floral bouquet for their 55th anniversary.
The Great Wall of TP- Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney held a well-attended rally at a Las Vegas paper company's warehouse that same evening. In addition to having his standard campaign logo backdrop with Old Glory, Romney was flanked by pallets of cases of toilet paper. Advance team must have missed that detail.
Supporting Newt...Through Song- At the Liberty High School caucuselecs in the Las Vegas suburb of Henderson, one supporter of former US House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich chose to lobby his fellow participants via boom box. Inspired NY Gingrich's unapologetic support for space exploration, the caucus attendee played a song he both wrote and recorded after the space shuttle Challenger exploded. In addition to playing his tune, Dancers in the Sky, the Newt-NASA partisan brought along a collage he made with pictures of Gingrich and the Challenger crew. Though Newt fared poorly at his precinct, the space exploration advocate was selected as a delegate to the Clark County GOP convention.
First in the West, Last in Results- The Nevada GOP's second early caucuses were late with results. The Saturday morning caucuses' final tally was not announced until two days later despite the fact that almost all of the caucus tabulatiohs were conducted on site within an hour of each precinct meeting. The meetings I attended lacked
structure and organization and the Nevada state GOP seemed overwhelmed. Nevada was not alone dealing with controversy this early on the primary calendar. Iowa, which experienced a notorious miscount that gave former US Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania a tardy victory.
Paul the Romantic Warrior Three days before the caucuses, Texas Congressman Ron Paul held a press conference at the Four Seasons in Las Vegas. At the media event, Paul gave a particularly parochial speech spending as much time on local matters as he typically spends decrying the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, foreign aid had the US monetary system.
Paul declared his opposition to depositing nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, the delays by the federal government in granting tourist visas (important to a state economy heavily dependent on foreign visitors) and not taxing tips (important to waiters, bar maids and strippers- important segments of the Clark County electorate).
At the conclusion of the media event, Paul presented his wife Carol with a floral bouquet for their 55th anniversary.
The Great Wall of TP- Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney held a well-attended rally at a Las Vegas paper company's warehouse that same evening. In addition to having his standard campaign logo backdrop with Old Glory, Romney was flanked by pallets of cases of toilet paper. Advance team must have missed that detail.
Supporting Newt...Through Song- At the Liberty High School caucuselecs in the Las Vegas suburb of Henderson, one supporter of former US House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich chose to lobby his fellow participants via boom box. Inspired NY Gingrich's unapologetic support for space exploration, the caucus attendee played a song he both wrote and recorded after the space shuttle Challenger exploded. In addition to playing his tune, Dancers in the Sky, the Newt-NASA partisan brought along a collage he made with pictures of Gingrich and the Challenger crew. Though Newt fared poorly at his precinct, the space exploration advocate was selected as a delegate to the Clark County GOP convention.
First in the West, Last in Results- The Nevada GOP's second early caucuses were late with results. The Saturday morning caucuses' final tally was not announced until two days later despite the fact that almost all of the caucus tabulatiohs were conducted on site within an hour of each precinct meeting. The meetings I attended lacked
structure and organization and the Nevada state GOP seemed overwhelmed. Nevada was not alone dealing with controversy this early on the primary calendar. Iowa, which experienced a notorious miscount that gave former US Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania a tardy victory.
Saturday, February 4, 2012
Nevada 2012: It's 10:46 PM...Do You Know Where Your Results Are?
Most of the caucuses in Nevada were conducted at 9 AM on Saturday yet as of 10:46 PM the Nevada GOP can only officially report 45% in. Why?
Especially since most of the votes were immediately counted on site, why is there such a long delay in reporting results?
Nevada's caucuses in 2008 were largely ignored as the media focused on the South Carolina primary, which was held the same day.
Maybe Nevada isn't ready for political prime time.
Especially since most of the votes were immediately counted on site, why is there such a long delay in reporting results?
Nevada's caucuses in 2008 were largely ignored as the media focused on the South Carolina primary, which was held the same day.
Maybe Nevada isn't ready for political prime time.
Nevada 2012: Newt Vows to Remain in Race
Calling the rumor of his departure from the race a "fantasy" spread by operatives of ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, former Speaker of the US House of Representatives Newt Gingrich reasserted his commitment to take his candidacy to the Republican National Convention in August in the face of a second straight defeat at the hands of Romney and a rumor that spread this morning that he was contemplating an end to his campaign.
Gingrich held a press conference at the posh Venetian Hotel and Casino as results from the Nevada caucuses trickled in showing a solid first place finish by Romney.
Gingrich downplayed his Nevada finish, citing Romney's previous success there in 2008 and the state's large Mormon population. The former speaker also predicted he would outperform Arizona US Senator John McCain's showing in Nevada four years before.
In 2008, McCain garnered 13% to come in third behind Romney and Texas US Representative Ron Paul but went on to win the Republican nomination for president.
Gingrich lambasted Romney throughout a press conference that took the place of a standard end of election party. The ex-speaker said he opted for the press conference as he did not want to conflict with the large number of Super Bowl parties and related events taking place across Las Vegas.
Beyond stating his intention to remain in the race, the Gingrich press conference offered little new from his standard attacks on Romney for being dishohest and a Massachusetts moderate. Gingrich did call Donald Trump a master media manipulator, a reference to Trump's endorsement of Romney after it was initially reported that the celebrity real estate developer was going to publicly back Gingrich.
Closing the media event on a light note, Gingrich revealed that he owns a share of the Green Bay Packers and that he will be cheering for the New York Giants.
Gingrich held a press conference at the posh Venetian Hotel and Casino as results from the Nevada caucuses trickled in showing a solid first place finish by Romney.
Gingrich downplayed his Nevada finish, citing Romney's previous success there in 2008 and the state's large Mormon population. The former speaker also predicted he would outperform Arizona US Senator John McCain's showing in Nevada four years before.
In 2008, McCain garnered 13% to come in third behind Romney and Texas US Representative Ron Paul but went on to win the Republican nomination for president.
Gingrich lambasted Romney throughout a press conference that took the place of a standard end of election party. The ex-speaker said he opted for the press conference as he did not want to conflict with the large number of Super Bowl parties and related events taking place across Las Vegas.
Beyond stating his intention to remain in the race, the Gingrich press conference offered little new from his standard attacks on Romney for being dishohest and a Massachusetts moderate. Gingrich did call Donald Trump a master media manipulator, a reference to Trump's endorsement of Romney after it was initially reported that the celebrity real estate developer was going to publicly back Gingrich.
Closing the media event on a light note, Gingrich revealed that he owns a share of the Green Bay Packers and that he will be cheering for the New York Giants.
Nevada 2012: Reno's In, Paul Falls, Newt Picks Up
With the Biggest Little City counted, Romney remains in first with 41%, Newt second with 26%, Paul down to 19% in third while Santorum hopped up to 14%.
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