Election 2012: Bachmann Scores Big at Ames Political Carnival

Two carnivals were taking place simultaneously in the heart of Iowa this past Saturday.

The Iowa State Fair in Des Moines was celebrating the centennial of its buttermilk cow and hawking such delicacies as fried Oreo cookies, fried butter and the ever popular (and delicious) porkchop on a stick.

Just up the road on the grounds of Iowa State University in Ames a political carnival was held. Both had cover charges ($10 to enter the state fair, $35 to vote in the Ames straw poll) and both had interesting dining selections (though no porkchop on a stick was to be found, the grub was free in Ames so long as you didn’t mind waiting in long lines). Congressman Ron Paul even provided a ride of sorts (a large inflatable “Dollar Slide”).

Below is a breakdown of how the candidates fared and in keeping with the carnival atmosphere, what each served up to prospective voters.

US Representative Michele Bachmann R-MN/IA Clearly the big winner. The TEA Party favorite nosed out Paul to receive the most votes and received the big headlines for her triumph. Though victory in the straw poll is not necessarily a sign that a candidate will win the caucuses a few months later or the nomination, Bachmann had something going for her that the 2007 victor, ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, never had: enthusiasm. Short of a major meltdown, Bachmann, who you’d never know represents a district in another state by her constant references to her Iowan background, is a heavy favorite to win the nation’s first delegate contest. Bachmann served up “meat sundaes”, lemonade, ice cream and country music star Randy Travis.

US Representative Ron Paul R-TX I know I lowballed Paul’s likely finish in the primer I penned though that was not out of disrespect for the feisty congressman nor his supporters (though it’s all too easy to harbor contempt for some of them when they are disruptive at conferences). Paul came in a distant fifth four years ago when his operation consisted of a largely empty tent and a horde of rambunctious out of state devotees.

The Paulista Ames 2.0 effort was a very different operation. Gone were the tinfoil tricorner hats and tatted up college students with the expanded earlobe rings; they were replaced by young men and women wearing suits in August (one Paul handler even sported a straw boater!) managing a multifaceted operation that was so organized that even the tent that dished out hot dogs had a professionally made banner advertising it. Five years of continual spreading revolution and launching full-scale straw poll assaults paid sizable dividends in Ames. Also of note were the supporters- instead of being heavy with college students, a large portion of those present for Paul included families (including one that had home-manufactured dresses out of Paul t-shirts) and older war veterans. You couldn’t discern the difference between them and say Romney supporters.

The Paul movement has broken beyond the kooks and the quad and almost pulled off an upset in a contest where the old trick of participants voting multiple registrations was blocked.

At a minimum, Paul won’t suffer the indignity of being shut out of debates as was the case in 2008 when FoxNews judged the quickly sinking Fred Thompson candidacy more viable than the well-financed Paul outfit. Aside from the aforementioned “money slide” and hot dogs, the Paul camp offered jugglers and Barry Goldwater, Jr.

Tim Pawlenty In what turned out to be a BBQ-laden Irish wake, the former Minnesota governor put all of his chips on Ames and crapped out. With Texas governor Rick Perry barging on to the scene that very day, Pawlenty made a big gamble. I’ll perform an autopsy later but the Famous Dave’s BBQ and Dairy Queen Blizzards were a hit.

Rick Santorum The former Pennsylvania US Senator- I find myself prefixing the word “former” a lot when referring to the 2012 GOP presidential field- claimed to supporters that his turnout went beyond expectations (which leads me to wonder if he expected to finish 7th or 8th). Considering his shoestring budget fourth place is respectable, but also bear in mind that “he whose named should not be googled” used buses to bring in people and has invested heavily in Iowa. With Pawlenty out, Santorum might be waiting for a Bachmann and/or Perry collapse to give him a sliver of a chance of breaking out the poll dungeon. Santorum had a country band and third of a pound hamburgers that proved worth standing in a long line to score.

Herman Cain The form…one-time Godfather’s Pizza executive had a modest set-up, a small tent with a stage that looked like the musician section of a hardscrabble Baptist church. The tent was SRO when the Herminator spoke and despite his not infrequent gaffes commands the hearts of many Republican activists but a smaller number of straw pollers. Cain kept the brand alive with his minimal investment and remains a part of the conversation. Naturally Godfather’s Pizza was served.

Rick Perry Banished from having an official presence for refusing to cut the Iowa GOP a check, the Americans for Perry borrowed a tent from another group and used it as the screening point for the Texas governor’s candidacy announcement. His people, Babs Janssen, Greg Marmalarde and their clones were clad in UT orange and Aggie maroon and white t-shirts. Beyond passing out flyers for Perry’s declaration of entry, the Holiday Inn-based squad slipped Aggie maroon pencils around asking Iowans to write the governor’s name in. More than a few did. Mission accomplished without great expense.

Mitt Romney To go from first to seventh shows the power of money. Last time Romney spent it and won; this time he didn’t and fell like a stone. The only time I saw Romney represented was on handmade posters carried by one-man armies decrying him as a RINO. One has to wonder if Romney is thinking about skipping Iowa altogether to avoid the ignominy of finishing second to yet another evangelical favorite and plant his flag in more favorable New Hampshire instead. It was about the only thing that worked out for McCain in 2008.

Newt Gingrich Worked the Iowa State Fair one day and then worked the straw poll area and didn’t trail Romney by too many votes. Newt will likely stay in the race until New Hampshire no matter how poorly the polls, straw, cooked and otherwise, portend. The historian in him won’t let him get out until then.

Jon Huntsman Invested in the Republican Leadership Conference’s straw poll in New Orleans and finished a “surprising” second place. But Iowa runs its polls different from Louisiana and the billionaire decided to take a pass. His campaign is reportedly in a tailspin after failing to get the jolt that Bachmann and Perry received being fellow late entires. Is he waiting on the Nevada caucuses to get started?

Thaddeus McCotter Last but certainly not least was the witty congressman from Michigan. He splurged a ton on location but not so much on vittles- two rough-looking ice cream trucks distributing bomb-pops. No more than a dozen or so people were in his area at any given time. McCotter didn’t do much speechifying (or as he put it “vent his spleen”) being content to strumming his guitar with the band he brought along. In New Orleans this writer consisted of half of his support; had I been able to vote in Ames, I would have consisted of just less than 3%. I guess I’m just ahead of the curve- the congressman’s words, not mine.

Sarah Palin Decided to make a surprise trip to Des Moines to visit the state fair the day before the straw poll. Unlike the declared candidates, Palin did not make a speech on the local newspaper’s “hay”box. The former Alaska governor was dressed casually and simply walked around the food booths while cheerfully accommodating the admiring throng’s picture and autograph numerous requests. Palin was not on the straw poll ballot though there were individuals present at the straw poll promoting her undeclared candidacy on home-made poster board signs. A Palin candidacy looks unlikely as there appears no great groundswell of support nor has she shown much interest in trading personal freedom and financially lucrative endeavors with unpaid campaigning and putting her children through another cavity search.

Election 2012: The Ames Debate

Election 2012: Ames Debate

Nobody could have accused FoxNews of cuddling Republicans tonight as the panel asked pointed questions of the GOP presidential contenders, contrasting their rhetoric with their record.

Quick notes in order of “winner”.

Mitt Romney- The former Massachusetts barely had a follicle on his scalp molested. The frontrunner prior to the debate walks out of Ames a double-winner- he retains his front runner status while not blowing the cash on the Ames straw poll shakedown that did little to help him in the Hawkeye State’s caucuses.

Rick Santorum- If Santorum had been re-elected US Senator in 2006, he’d be a big part of the conversation. Instead the Pennsylvanian is putting all of his chips on Iowa out of necessity. Santorum focused on his commitment to bring back to America manufacturing jobs that have been sailing to east Asia for years, breaking out of his familiar social conservatism. He presented well when he was given the limelight, though obviously exasperated with so much attention being given to other candidates. Santorum’s performance might allow him to slip into the top three in the Ames straw poll. Santorum also had the quote of the night, contrasting leadership with showmanship.

Michele Bachmann- She got visibly steamed, mysteriously vanished from the stage and was called out on her thin record of actual accomplishments on Capitol Hill, but the Iowa-native (as the congresswoman eagerly points out) was given a gift in the form of a question about a comment (taken out of context) related to being submissive to her husband. No doubt many people found the query tasteless though Bachmann fielded it in stride. Bachmann’s expected first place finish in the straw poll was not upset but the congresswoman showed she doesn’t handle sparring well. That doesn’t bode well as a viable candidate and should concern even those who find her positions agreeable.

Newt Gingrich- Receiving a less than enthusiastic reception before he opened his mouth, the former speaker of the US House of Representatives also showed some thin skin though he built sympathy with the audience by criticizing Chris Wallace and the media in general’s obsession with inside politics. Gingrich’s reaction to a question about his campaign operation’s meltdown brought forth a comparison to Ronald Reagan’s angry rant when a debate moderator refused to accommodate a request during the 1980 New Hampshire primary. But poor posture and a seemingly permanent chip on the shoulder attitude didn’t inspire visions of a political resurrection.

Tim Pawlenty- Though the former Minnesota governor did not have the worst performance, Pawlenty needed to almost dominate. Instead he launched into a rickety critique of RomneyCare after a patronizing setup by the panelists and engaging in a back-and-forth with Bachmann. Pawlenty’s candidacy is sinking fast (and this is coming from someone who is sympathetic to it) and might not survive a fourth place Ames straw poll finish combined with Rick Perry’s entry.

Herman Cain- The populist black conservative candidate found himself fending off questions that imply he’s a religious bigot. His concession that he was not well-schooled on the particulars of Afghanistan further undermine his candidacy’s credibility.

Ron Paul- Same rhetoric, better fitting suit. Same over-eager supporters screaming like they’re at a pro-wrestling match that marginalizes Paul as a candidate. Surely his movement has to have a better pitchman.

Jon Huntsman- So former Louisiana governor Buddy Roemer and ex-New Mexico governor Gary Johnson get left out the debates but this guy is invited? Huntsman had an erratic delivery and seemed unprepared and unpolished. A poor introduction to Republican primary voters.

Election 2012: Will the Ames Straw Poll Play Widow Maker?

The August straw poll in Ames, Iowa is the first unofficial contest on the presidential campaign calendar.

Though no delegates are on the line candidates have invested tens of thousands of campaign dollars on an event that is not much more than a shameless money grab by the Iowa GOP and the Hawkeye State’s political operatives.

The straw poll has had a winnowing effect on the Republican field. Four years ago former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson and Kansas US Senator Sam Brownback’s candidacies came to an end after disappointing showings.

Eight years prior, ex-Red Cross chief Liddy Dole, former Vice-President Dan Quayle and ex-Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander ended their White House bids after the straw poll.

Going into the 2011 gathering of Republican activists, buzzards are circling over the campaign of ex-Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, who has yet to break out of the lower tier of candidates despite his organizational strength and relatively strong conservative and governmental credentials.

The Minnesotan’s geographic advantage was trumped by the entry of Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, whose candidacy began to surge in the polls during the same debate where Pawlenty failed to assert himself as the alternative to GOP front runner and ex-Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

Can Pawlenty survive a poor third place finish in Ames and Texas governor Rick Perry’s expected entry into the race? Probably not. Anything short of coming in second is going to put Pawlenty’s presidential aspirations on life support. Pawlenty is making a substantial investment in the straw poll and he needs to realize a significant return.

Otherwise, it’s a short drive north.

Bachmann is expected to win the straw poll; coming in second would be considered a disappointment, especially with Romney officially staying out of it.

Romney publicly said he would not participate in the contest- in contrast to the considerable sum he plowed into luxury buses to haul in supporters from across the state in 2007.

Romney is right to be leery about putting too many of his eggs in the Iowa basket as the wheels began to fly off his campaign in the cornfields at the hands of the underfunded but charismatic Mike Huckabee. The Baptist preacher/ex-Arkansas governor scored a surprising second place finish in the straw poll and then won the actual caucuses a few months later.



As expected Perry is looking to play the spoiler by ignoring the Iowa GOP chieftains and creating his own newsmaking events in the early states of South Carolina and New Hampshire. The Texas governor, who has been less coy about a presidential run, is expected to expound on his candidate status this weekend.

With the straw poll not expecting to generate any big news due to Romney’s absence, Perry’s media coverage is almost certain to steal some of Bachmann’s thunder without blowing the absurd amounts of money candidates spent on “renting” premium frontage.

The Ron Paul forces will once again make a show of force at the straw poll though it would be surprising if the libertarian finished in the top three. Since participants must be Iowans, the legion of Paulistas who travel across the country rolling up easy straw poll wins at other Republican events for their hero will be frustrated in Ames.

Despite having a large force of out of state volunteers on the ground (one of the images from the previous straw poll is that of random Paulists stoically holding their candidate’s signs in the midst of a large empty parking lot), manpower doesn’t equal votes.

Paul just nudged past Tommy Thompson in the 2007 straw poll by 2 percentage points to place a distant fifth.

For the increasingly shrinking campaigns of ex-Pennsylvania US Senator Rick Santorum, one-time Godfathers Pizza executive Herman Cain and ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Ames won’t matter much as they’re already living off the land. However if any of the three were to slip past Pawlenty, it would be fatal to the Minnesotan’s candidacy while providing a second gasp of air in a political room that is running out of oxygen.

Since Congressman Thaddeus McCotter and former Utah governor Jon Huntsman are just launching their campaigns, they’ll be immune from bad news out of Ames but need to figure out a way to prevent their nascent efforts from being engulfed by Perry’s entry.


Note- I will be tweeting the results (mikebayham) of the straw poll and posting them on www.mikebayham.blogspot.com from Ames about 6 PM CST on Saturday.

How a Bill Became a Law

The best scene in the Rodney Dangerfield classic Back to School was Dangerfield’s first day in business class where the professor outlined how a factory is constructed…in theory.

Taking issue with the “textbook” explanation, Dangerfield’s character, a successful Big & Tall haberdasher, laid out how it works in reality, warts and all.

Now most of us are familiar with the old stick figure sketches that appear in high school civics books showing how a bill becomes a law.

Several weeks ago I witnessed, or didn’t witness on one day in particular, how a certain bill became a law. And what happened didn’t look anything like the standard flow chart nor did it resemble the process as described in the “I’m Just a Bill” musical short from ABC’s School House Rock.

Though it would have been a hell of a lot more enjoyable if Jack Sheldon had provided the lyrics in his signature raspy voice.

Below is a point-by-point chronology how House Bill 509 was conceptualized, proposed, introduced, processed, almost aborted, rescued, advanced and finally made into law. Viewer discretion advised.

1) Louisiana Republican State Central Committee passes resolution in early 2011 calling for moving the Louisiana Presidential Primary to March to avoid losing half of the state’s delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention.

2) As the filing deadline ticked down and furiously dialing away on my cell phone, I finally found a legislator who had a “vacancy” and was willing to sponsor the bill. During a fiscal session legislators have a limit on the number of non-fiscal, non-local bills they are allowed to introduce.

3) Bill language is drawn up and then prefiled in the House of Representatives.

4) Bill is then assigned to House and Governmental Affairs for consideration.

5) Bill goes to purgatory for a few weeks as I work to get the Louisiana Democrats on board. Over a dozen calls are placed to their officials and leaders in the hope of putting together the same coalition that passed the previous primary date change five years ago.

6) Finally someone with the state Democratic Party fields a phone call and punts to the matter to the Louisiana Democratic State Central Committee, which meets infrequently. The clock continues to tick on the session as the bill has not yet left committee.

7) Word gets out that the Louisiana Democratic State Central Committee is not expected to meet due to concerns about the rising Mississippi River. It becomes apparent that the Democrats have been stalling for weeks and have no intention to cooperate. With a Republican majority in both houses, the decision is made to have the bill heard before time runs out.

8) On the same day I am flying out of town, the bill is heard before House and Governmental Affairs. The chairman kindly allows for the bill to be considered first so I can then proceed directly to the airport. Minor technical amendments are added and the bill passes committee without exception.

9) The bill is reported from committee and then sent to a third reading and placed on the calendar with debate scheduled for a week later.

10) The bill passes 84-0 on the House floor.

11) Five days later the bill is sent over to the Senate, given two readings and then sent to the Senate and Governmental Affairs Committee.

12) Reenters purgatory for two and a half weeks.

13) Bill is to be considered on the last scheduled Senate and Governmental Affairs meeting to vote on legislation. Joining the presidential primary bill that day are measures calling for the passage of a constitutional amendment regarding the federal debt and for placing a monument of the Ten Commandments on the State Capitol grounds. As the presidential primary bill is to be heard after these high-profile measures and that three of the legislature’s most partisan Democrats serve on the committee, I get a bad feeling how things are going to turn out. Witness card turned in before the meeting commences.

14) After much acrimonious debate on the aforementioned bills, the bill is called up for a hearing several hours later. The bill’s sponsor occupies one of the three seats at the testimony table with representatives of the Secretary of State’s office sitting in the other two. I am stuck sitting behind them.

15) After a line of questions posed by a senator who is favorable to the bill is completed, Democratic senator moves to have the bill deferred. By a 6-1 vote (four Democrats joined by two Republicans on a committee with a 5-4 GOP majority), the bill is deferred. No explanation is given. My witness card was apparently lost.

16) After speaking with one of the senators I am allowed to hurriedly address the committee after the fact. The bill is not reconsidered effectively killing it being so late in the session. Democratic opponent to the measure pipes up that it is merely deferred and not dead.

17) Bill sponsor claims he will tack the language on to another piece of legislation, but that bill is defeated. Options become limited.

18) While driving to New Orleans I start counting the days needed for a bill to get out of committee with time to make it back over to the house for concurrence (as another set of amendments are brought forth by the Secretary of State’s office AFTER the bill left the House of Representatives). Last shot would be a rehearing in committee.

19) Call is placed to a state senator on the floor who then meets with the Senate and Governmental Affairs Committee chairman and requests that another hearing be held in light of the nature the bill was dismissed and the prospect of a $6,000,000 election being held of no value as the state GOP declared they would boycott the primary if it is not moved. A meeting is rescheduled only hours after the bill was deferred.

20) Emails go out to Republican activists from GOP leaders around the state to the Republican senators who voted against the measure in committee asking that they reconsider the vote. TEA Party activists join in as well.

21) Less than 40 hours later with all GOP members of the Senate and Governmental Affairs present, the presidential primary bill leaves the committee on a straight party line 5-4 vote. Hopefully the Republican Party and delegation has learned a valuable lesson on having so many partisan Democrats on a committee that handles reapportionment and other important political matters.

22) Bill is reported out of committee on Sunday.

23) On Monday, the last day to get House bills out of the Senate, the bill is referred to the Legislative Bureau for review.

24) Hours later the Legislative Bureau reports that no additional amendments are added and it is then passed to third reading and final passage.

25) Hours later with the rules suspended in order to move House bills out of the Senate that day, the bill is passed with bipartisan support (and bipartisan opposition) by a margin of 27-9. Three additional Democrats join three of their colleagues who voted against the bill in committee. Three Republicans who are not on the Senate and Governmental Affairs also vote against.

26) The next day the House of Representatives concurs with the bill as amended in the Senate 91-0.

27) The Speaker of the House signs the bill and sends it to the President of the Senate.

28) Senate President signs the bill.

29) Sent to governor for approval or veto.

30) Five days later, HB 509 is signed by Governor Jindal as Act 293

So there you have it, how a bill became a law in its full splendor.

Somehow the civics book forgot to include the partisan sabotage, grassroots political pressure, clock management and procedural maneuvering that are unmentioned key ingredients in the legislative process.

Perhaps Bismarck had it right when he compared the process of making laws to that of making sausage.

RLC Notebook: Paul Wins Straw Poll, Not Delegates

There’s a big difference between attending a conference for the conference and attending a conference for the primary purpose of supporting your candidate in a straw poll.

To use a sports analogy, it’s like the difference between cheering for a player as opposed to the team he plays on. And that’s why there is so much animosity between Republican activists and Ron Paul activists.

The party regulars don’t consider the Paul supporters Republicans while the Paul supporters don’t consider the GOP establishment true conservatives.

And they’re both right to some degree.

That Texas Congressman Ron Paul won yet another straw poll is no shock.

This is the kind of activity that the Paulistas/Paulistinians (don’t call them Paultards- which has a vile implication) specialize in and with “school out” for the summer, the June conference date was a boon to the college student driven effort.

These kids (and they are mostly young people, not that this once 22-year old state GOP committeeman thinks there is anything wrong with that) aren’t hauled in or bribed into going. They foot their own bills beyond the registrations and make sacrifices to travel about the country.

Rather than chasing Green Day, U2 or Phish, these whippersnappers are following the most prominent advocate of the Austrian School of Economics.

And perhaps breaking some possession laws along the way.

The Paulistas should consider making straw poll/concert t-shirts complete with the dates of the conferences they attend.

Now what’s the benefit of the traveling political carnival?

I say nothing. An ardent Paul supporter almost turned blue in the face when I discounted the value of the straw poll strategy.

But it’s true: Paul wins straw polls but loses delegate elections. Badly.

Until Paul can devise a way to breakout beyond the older libertarian/younger college campus crowd, their champion will have to settle for paper victories.

Huntsman’s Propaganda Victory

"The result demonstrates that young conservatives are responding to his record of success in Utah, willingness to take the debt problem seriously, and foreign policy message," said a spokesman for former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman.

Really?

This absurd declaration would be slightly easier to swallow had Huntsman actually spoke at the event.

Let me clear something up right here: there was not enthusiastic groundswell of support for a moderate that many people, including the activists attending the conference, have not even heard of.

Huntsman has participated in no debates and his “tribute” to Ronald Reagan’s campaign kickoff with the Statue of Liberty in the background is yet to come.

There might have been more legitimacy in the crowds in the rafters that chanted “We Want Willkie!” at the 1940 Republican National Convention than there was for Huntsman shadow straw poll operation.

The Huntsman campaign had no visible presence at all at the conference; but they had one in the straw poll ballot box via wholesale purchase of registrations.

The gambit, which I am certain set someone back a lot of money, was intended to have a surprise showing for a candidate with low name recognition.

Huntsman did score some favorable press as the second place showing did seem to come out of nowhere but the billionaire ex-Utah Governor/Ambassador to China known for penning flowery effusive letters to President Barack Obama will need more than an orchestrated vote hauling operation to win the Republican nomination.

And he may very well be the one candidate who has much more to explain to conservatives than Romney.

As the Huntsman “surge” was a sham, one has to wonder if there are not less expensive ways to get a pop.

The Rest of the Field: The “Honest” Votes

What’s relevant about the Republican Leadership Conference’s straw poll is that it was onducted less than a week after the first major debate of the 2012 presidential campaign,

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who in 2010 ran a much more aggressive and successful “vote haul” operation than Hunstman did in 2011, has decried the expense of participating in straw polls and his decline in the two conferences is significant.

After nudging past straw poll king Ron Paul in 2010, Romney received a relatively paltry 74 votes. But here’s the good news for Mitt, unlike in 2010 when the Romney camp was buying registrations for anyone with a heartbeat that would agree to support him in the straw poll, he had an honest showing at the 2011 RLC.

74 votes isn’t bad for a candidate not expected to do well in the south and made no effort.

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann’s 191 straw poll votes are also probably “honest” when considering the reception she received by conference attendees and the major boost the plucky TEA Party favorite received from CNN’s New Hampshire Republican presidential debate.

Ex-Godfather’s executive Herman Cain, who spent very little on the event beyond having a hospitality suite off-site in a crowded hotel room, should also be proud of his 104 votes.

Texas Governor Rick Perry’s name was not on the straw poll ballot and the RLC organizers stated that write-ins were not accepted and would not counted. The policy caused some people in line who wanted to support Perry to become very irate.

It would have been interesting to see what support Perry would have received, even as a non-candidate, judging by the enthusiastic reception he received from conference attendees.

And My Vote Went To…

Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter received my vote at the straw poll for two reasons.

First, I figured it would be the next best thing to abstaining. Secondly I felt obligated to express my admiration for having the guts to poke Romney on health care.

McCotter did the job that ex-Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty was unwilling to do.

Democrats Gut GOP Presidential Primary...With a Little Help from the GOP!

One of my proudest political accomplishments happened five years ago when I cobbled together a coalition of political leaders from both sides of the spectrum to support moving Louisiana’s presidential primary to a date that would make the state’s delegate contest relevant.

It was the first time ever that the Louisiana Republican Party and the Louisiana Democratic Party had ever come together to support a piece of legislation.

The bill passed and both sides benefited from the increased media exposure, voter participation in the primary and candidate visits.

Louisiana mattered.

In the summer of 2010, in an attempt to “fix things”, both party national committees decided to bring order to the calendar chaos that led to so much front loading by state parties by passing rules reordering when states could have their caucuses and primaries.

The new rules protected Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada’s early status while establishing harsh penalties for states that wanted to hold their contests before the first Tuesday of March.

That concept was sound and a welcome innovation. However getting 50 states and several federal territories to get on the same page is a bit like herding cats. Especially since elections, as we learned from 2000, are conducted very differently amongst the states.

In some states the party controls the setting of election dates; in others the legislature. New Hampshire has vested its secretary of state with power to set his state’s primary date to assure that the Granite State’s can be first.

Louisiana’s primary date is set by statute. Or to phrase it another way, it takes an act of the legislature to change it.

A bill was drafted and introduced this session to bring Louisiana into compliance with both national parties. While the Louisiana Republican State Central Committee passed multiple resolutions endorsing the move, the Louisiana Democratic Party remained cryptically silent.

That is until Wednesday.

After the primary date change bill sailed out of the House of Representatives without so much as a dirty look, the legislation was ambushed before the Senate and Governmental Affairs Committee.

By a vote to 6-1, the bill was “indefinitely deferred”. When I argued that they killed it, I was corrected by a senator that there was a difference. However with the legislative session calendar ticking down to its last days, my phrasing stated the obvious while her term merely stated the “manner of death”.

Amazingly enough the bill was rejected without comment.

In several decades of watching politics I have never seen something defeated before a governmental body without explanation.

When I chased down one Democratic senator who had much to say about a resolution that endorsed the concept of a constitutional convention and asked for an explanation, I was greeted with a silent shrug of the shoulders.

Why would the Democrats engage in such petty politics?

And why were they joined by two Republicans in their silent derailing (the other Republican being Jody Amedee)?

Were Republicans simply asleep at the wheel and duped by Democratic partisans into providing them cover for their machinations?

Let me explain the fallout from this move.

First, the Louisiana GOP will look like fools this week when presidential candidates visit New Orleans to speak at the Republican Leadership Conference and read in the newspaper how the presidential primary bill was defeated for no stated reason.

Secondly, the Louisiana GOP will simply opt out of the primary and thus turn it into a meaningless $6,000,000 “beauty contest” with no delegates at stake. Four years ago the Louisiana Republican Party was mocked for having rules that denied former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee from having a single delegate because he “only” won a plurality and not a majority of the Louisiana GOP vote.

At least this time it won’t be the party’s fault, just the party’s senators when we are once again embarrassed.

Thirdly, Louisiana will draw less attention and thus fewer visits from Republican presidential candidates, who are going to spend time where delegates are at stake. In addition to the loss of attention, Louisiana would also lose the opportunity to educate candidates, perhaps a future president, about the federal issues that are important to our region and miss out on the promises that New Hampshire and Iowa are showered with every four years.

For a state struggling with a White House imposed oil exploration embargo and losing acres of land a day to coastal erosion, we need national figures to learn about Louisiana.

Fourthly, because the primary will be unofficial Republicans looking to participate in the caucuses that will be held in a handful of locations across the state.

When looking at the Picassos the legislature drew for congressional districts in the reapportionment session, someone who lives in Washington Parish might end up having to go to Alexandria. Also keep in mind we now have two districts that run from Arkansas to I-10.

Had the Republicans attempted to do this in 2004, state Democrats would have screamed bloody murder and accused the GOP of trying to deny the franchise to poor voters by burdening them with the expense of traveling to a caucus site.

I can imagine the outcry, the protests, the demagoguery, the lawsuits and maybe even a visit from the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division that would stem from that maneuver.

But since the Democrats won’t have a competitive primary as President Barack Obama will likely be unchallenged, they see an opportunity to kick the GOP in the shin.

For a party that has thus far been unable to field a candidate for governor, I suppose such cheap wins count as an accomplishment these days.

Whatever feelings of euphoria gained from this slight will be fleeting with the enmity and ill will that are the byproducts from this Democratic “victory” lasting.


Update: It’s Not Dead Yet

Senate and Governmental Affairs Chairman Bob Kostelka scheduled a rehearing on the bill for this Friday. If you know the individuals on the committee, please contact them and let your voice be heard. The senators’ contact info can be found at www.legis.state.la.us


Votes for deferral (no votes)

Karen Carter Peterson D-New Orleans
Lydia Jackson D-Shreveport
Rob Marionneaux D-Livonia
Daniel Claitor R-Baton Rouge
Jody Amedee R-Ascension Parish

Vote against deferral (yes vote)

Mike Walsworth R-Monroe

Absent

Jack Donahue R-St. Tammany Parish

The First New Hampshire Debate: Losers and Non-Losers

As the title implies, there were no real winners in CNN’s New Hampshire debate between the field thus far of Republican presidential contenders.

Perhaps the location of the forum (it wasn’t much of a debate) was appropriate as Saint Anselm College was where in 2000 George W. Bush conceded the Granite State primary to Arizona US Senator John McCain.

The biggest non-loser of the night was clearly former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Why? Because Romney was not challenged once by his fellow Republican candidates on his spotty record as a conservative.

Romney might as well have been reading from a Teleprompter and his aides could have handed out preprinted copies of his polished and well-delivered answers before the questions were asked. His frontrunner status both nationally and in the critical early primary state was not only preserved but likely expanded by the reluctance of anyone to lay a glove on Mitt.

For a candidate trying to create an air of inevitability, the first “debate” Romney deemed worthy of his participation was a major victory.

The second biggest non-loser was Herman Cain. The ex-pizza company executive solidified the niche he carved for himself in the earlier South Carolina debate with his sharp, concise statements. While Cain will not be the nominee, the former Godfather’s Pizza chief will be in the race well after better funded “more electable” rivals have been dispatched.

Finally the third biggest non-loser, Minnesota US Representative Michele Bachmann. Why? Because CNN said so.

The commentators didn’t exactly fawn over her (such public expressions of fealty are reserved exclusively for the Messiah-in-Chief), though the talking heads on the channel went through great pains to praise her performance and tout her potential.

Bachmann is a prolific fundraiser and a TEA Party favorite. She’s also a native Iowan and isn’t too proud to pander and cajole via pep rally-style rhetoric to win people over. Bachmann made the most of her opportunity to more or less announce she will be making a formal announcement about running for president, which wasn’t smoothly delivered but put the former governor of Alaska on notice.

The conventional wisdom is that Sarah Palin and Bachmann would cancel each other out on the same ballot and it’s apparent the three-term congresswoman is willing to play political chicken with Palin.

Bachmann repeated much of her opening address at the 2011 CPAC, which sounded more like a presidential stump speech then for good reason, once again advancing her three-legged stool of conservatism analogy (fiscal, social and security conservatives).

To her credit, the longer the debate dragged on, the better Bachmann performed.

Now for the losers. And dare I say the biggest one was the candidate I would vote for if I had to choose from one of the seven.

Ex-Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty missed his shot. CNN reporter and debate moderator John King did the job none of the other Republican candidates were willing to do: challenge Romney on his record.

When King asked Pawlenty about his previous use of the term Obamneycare as a critique of Romney’s health care record while he was governor of Massachusetts, the Minnesotan made like a golden gopher and burrowed away from the question.

Pawlenty’s punt showed both a lack of political instinct and guts. Does Pawlenty not grasp that his path to the nomination goes over Romney’s meticulously coiffed carcass?

With Texas governor Rick Perry poised to make a lack entry, Pawlenty’s window of opportunity to establish himself as a first-tier candidate is very narrow. Rather than challenging the front runner, by an inexplicable act of political pusillanimity reinforced it by avoiding a much needed discussion on why Romney should not be the party’s nominee.

Pawlenty’s one pop of the night was his vigorous comments on right-to-work but for the most part, the “other” Minnesotan lost an opportunity to make it a Pawlenty v. Romney fight and instead faded into the scenery.

Candidates who are polling in the low single digits can’t afford to remain as backdrop for long, even with good organizations set up in the early states. Especially if they lack a constituency. Sam’s Club Republicans can only do so much.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich showed he had a pulse albeit weak. Newt came off like a cantankerous professor (himself?), did not dress presidential and scowled most of the evening. Monday was not the turnaround moment his campaign bid needed. Someone needs to tell Gingrich that the presidential nomination will be determined by voters and not via standardized testing.

In another incredible act of charity, former Pennsylvania US Senator Rick Santorum refused to go after Romney when his multiple-positions on that most black-and-white issue, abortion. Rather than boldly trying to create a presence for his candidacy, Santorum struggled to fit in his bland canned rhetoric into the tight constraints allowed by the CNN host.

Finally there was Texas US Representative and political cult figure Ron Paul. The libertarian somehow managed to come off crankier than Newt. Wore, Paul wore a suit jacket that looked too big on his small frame, which made him look every bit the septuagenarian he is. Though the feisty candidate was finally pried off the issue of monetary policy as time went on, Paul clearly lacked vigor.

If Paul was selfless, he’d pass the baton off to ex-New Mexico governor Gary Johnson, who has a similar constituency, and let a younger candidate with experience as a state executive borrow his impressive and energetic operation for an election cycle rather than monopolize it.

It’s not like Rand couldn’t get the keys back at the end of the day.

If the honor of “winner” had to be assigned to someone it would go to whoever passed on taking part in the debate and planned on jumping in the race later. What transpired at Saint Anselm didn’t inspire much confidence in the current crop of candidate selection.