Tuesday, April 27, 2010

The Need to Return to Election Normalcy

Starting in 2008, Louisiana conducted elections under two different systems: a closed party primary for federal races and an open primary for all other elections.

Under the rules of the closed primary for federal (US Representative and US Senator), each of the state’s political parties had the option of allowing registered independents and those voters who don’t have a party affiliation (in the eyes of the Secretary of State, there is a distinction) to participate in their primary.

The Louisiana GOP’s State Committee resoundingly voted to keep their primary exclusively for registered Republicans, while the Democrats, sensing a public relations coup, happily welcomed independents and unaffiliated voters to participate in theirs. More on that Republican committee vote later in this column.

Now before I delve into the complications, absurdities and the cost to the taxpayers of the closed primary system, allow me to discuss politics.

John McCain, the Republican Party’s presidential nominee, carried the Pelican State with 59% of the vote yet less than one-third of the Louisiana electorate are registered Republicans. Obviously independents, unaffiliated voters and registered Democrats crossed over to create this in-state landslide.

The GOP bosses and committee members ignore this reality with their insistence of “party purity” in the closed primary. While the Louisiana Republican State Central Committee’s 114-5 vote endorsing the closed primary was seemingly overwhelming, two things should be mentioned. First the RSCC consists of over 200 members; hence barely a majority were at the meeting. And some of those “votes” were proxies (members who handed their votes to someone else) and not the votes of members actually present.

Furthermore, over 70% of the RSCC was elected without opposition. Though its members serve on the governing board of the Louisiana Republican Party, one should not automatically assume that this mostly unelected body actually speaks for Louisiana’s registered Republicans.

In addition to insulting independents and unaffiliated voters, a critical cog in the Louisiana Republican Party’s electoral coalition, by shutting them out of the GOP primary and thus allowing them to participate in the Democratic primary, they’re creating a “moderating” effect by supporting more conservative Democratic candidates.

In other words, the independents and unaffiliated voters are saving the Democrats from themselves while the Louisiana GOP hides behind their ideological ramparts.

This scenario played out in the special election to replace Congressman Richard Baker in the Baton Rouge’s 6th congressional district, where a centrist Democrat, Don Cazayoux won his party’s nomination while ultra-conservative Woody Jenkins won the GOP nod. To nobody’s surprise, the Democrat won the general election in a fairly conservative congressional district.

But the closed primary’s can giveth and taketh. Another quirk with the system is that a candidate needs to only garner a plurality (the most votes as opposed to a majority) to win an election. Since the closed primary’s return, Louisiana has elected four congressmen without a majority, including Cazayoux and the Republican who defeated him later on in 2008.

The closed primary allows for political manipulation and chicanery to determine the outcome of a congressional election because a candidate does not need to win a majority.

Candidates have the option of skipping what could be a two-election primary, since a candidate DOES need to win a majority of the vote to receive his or her party’s nomination. A candidate can avoid the hassle and expense of winning a primary fight by simply qualifying for the general election as an independent or be nominated by one of the minor parties that have ballot access, such as the Greens or Libertarians. These candidates are in a position to play spoiler to a major party nominee (see ex-Congressman Cazayoux).

And there’s the potential for lawsuits as precinct commissioners could (and I’m sure have) accidentally allow people who shouldn’t vote in a particular primary or block someone from participating who is allowed to vote in a particular primary.

While permitting only Republicans to vote in the Republican primary and allowing Democrats, independents and unaffiliated voters to vote in the Democratic Primary might seem like a simple concept, the possibility (or rather probability) for confusion is ripe, especially since elected local offices under the open primary are voted on the same day!

You could very well have a case where someone is elected party nominee by more votes than there were eligible votes cast. While this is hardly unprecedented in Louisiana, the practical complexities of this system invite controversy.

Finally there is the best argument for scrapping the closed primary: its $6,000,000+ price tag.

Louisiana is in the midst of a nine-figure budget crisis. By scrapping the closed primary (which could require up to three elections) and going with the open primary (no more than two elections), the state could save a considerable amount of money that could go towards plugging the budget hole and off-setting cuts to hospitals and higher education.

Though the leadership of the Louisiana Republican Party boasts about being conservative, there is nothing more conservative a Republican can do than to save money from being needlessly spent.

The only winners with the closed primary are political consultants, since they stand to make money off of three elections instead of two in an open primary.

The closed federal primary is one luxury that Louisiana cannot afford.

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Jindal Taps Tauzin for Lt. Governor's Post

On late Wednesday evening, Governor Bobby Jindal announced that former south Louisiana US Representative Billy Tauzin R-Chackbay was offered and has accepted the soon to be vacated office of lieutenant governor.

“I’m excited to share with the public that one of Louisiana’s most able representatives in Washington has decided to once again serve the people of our great state as lieutenant governor,” said Jindal from his fourth floor office in the State Capitol.

“This is going to be a tough legislative session requiring that I spend time in Baton Rouge. Yet as governor, I have obligations that require me to leave the state at times for economic development and to meet with federal officials in Washington. With Billy stepping up as lieutenant governor, I can stay at home to work on the people’s business while he can handle the out of state business.”

Tauzin served in the Louisiana House of Representatives for two terms before winning a special election as a Democrat to succeed David Treen as US Representative from Louisiana’s Third Distirct. Tauzin had made an unsuccessful bid for governor in 1987, finishing fourth behind fellow congressmen Buddy Roemer and Bob Livingston.

Tauzin was a leading conservative Democrat until 1995 when he switched parties and joined the GOP during the Republican’s first year in control of the US House of Representatives since the early days of the Eisenhower Administration.

Tauzin did not seek re-election in 2008 after overcoming severe health issues and accepted a leadership post in PhRMA, a major pharmaceutical trade group. His son, Billy Tauzin, III unsuccessfully sought to succeed his father in Congress.

Tauzin recently decided to step down from his lucrative PhRMA position, possibly as a precursor to accepting the lieutenant governor’s post though the ex-congressman’s name had not been widely circulated as a possible candidate for the office.

The Chackbay native was present at Governor Jindal’s announcement declining to discuss his appointment at length. “I’m honored by Bobby’s expression of confidence in my ability to work for Louisiana’s interests. And as they say down in the bayou, ‘jour d’imbecile d’avril heureux!’”

Which is French for "Happy April Fool's Day!"

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Autopsy on the Jay Batt Campaign

If you’re a regular reader of this column or was one of those checking out “The Early Call” on Saturday night, you are already aware of the record-breaking time I projected ex-Councilman Jay Batt’s defeat in his bid to get back in city government.

Originally, I had posted three other precinct checkers across District A, in the riverbend, uptown, midcity and lakeview areas to call in results though I ended up calling them up and telling them not to bother 15 minutes after the election end.

The first set of numbers I saw in one precinct in Lakeview, the most Republican area in New Orleans, told me the whole story. Though Batt had won the box, he had done so by about 16 votes. He fared just as well (or rather poorly) at a neighboring station.

While en route to the next cluster of precincts, where poll workers provide transparency in elections by posting the numbers outside the door of the voting location, I called up Batt supporters that things weren’t looking well.

As I approached the door of the largest concentration of voting boxes in Lakeview with a pen and notepad in my hand, my eyes scanned the numbers, though I didn’t bother writing any of them down.

Batt had broken even.

I put my pen in my pants pocket and retrieved my cell phone from my other and told my fellow number crunchers to head back. The election was over even though Batt led most of the precincts I had checked.

Batt had carried precincts with a bare majority that virtually any Republican would win by 2 or 3-1 margins.

Here’s an example:

Precinct 4-17A, a box that went to John McCain, who had some of the worst numbers for a GOP presidential candidate in Orleans Parish in decades, handily carried it with 79%.

Batt lost that box by 5 votes…and it was hardly the exception as many other GOP precincts either gave Batt a slight majority or a loss. As you can imagine, Batt didn’t do well at all in Democratic precincts.

So how can one nitpick what a candidate did wrong when he got beat by a 62%-38% margin?

After all, it might be easier to find out what he did right.

That said, here’s an outsider’s view on how a well-financed Republican candidate got thrashed in a council district that has historically elected Republicans, at least until 2006.

1) Failure to consolidate the Republican vote. The first symptom of defeat was Batt’s lukewarm showings in Republican neighborhoods. Though the district is not a solid GOP district (it voted heavily for Barack Obama in 2008), the turnout dynamic favored a Republican, especially after Claude Mauberret dropped out of the assessor’s race, putting more pressure on Susan Guidry’s campaign to fire-up the Democratic base on her own. Though he made the effort, Batt failed to effectively play the Republican card with GOP voters despite his solid cred in this area, having played a major role in Joseph Cao’s defeat of Democratic Congressman Bill Jefferson and being the lone councilman who actively opposed Kathleen Blanco’s bid for governor in 2003.

2) Running on endorsements vs. testimonials. Batt received several high-profile endorsements from popular political figures Sheriff Marlin Gusman, Councilwoman Jackie Clarkson, District Attorney Leon Cannizzaro, etc.) yet they had little effect on his candidacy. The mailers I saw simply contained file photos of the endorser with a forgettable effusive quote on why Batt was great. Batt relied heavily on endorsements in his unsuccessful re-election bid in 2006, going so far as putting the Alliance for Good Government, the Times-Picayune and Bobby Jindal’s endorsements on his yard signs. Yet the same strategy that didn’t work last election should not have expected to do much this time. Rather than simply using endorsements and names, Batt should have used testimonials laying out what Batt had done specifically as a councilman while working with his endorsers in government. Furthermore, endorsements have little impact in big races or local races of interest; high-profile endorsements matter most in low-profile contests that are sandwiched in between more interesting elections.

3) Neutralizing “Anybody But Batt” First. The candidate had to know they weren’t going away and he should have launched his campaign actively engaging their charges and refuting them. Instead, the anti-Batt brigade defined his candidacy peppering him with criticism throughout the campaign with the least threatening aspect of their effort being their ABB signs in Mardi Gras colors.

On another note, I was surprised that the City of New Orleans would pick up the signs on election day, since technically candidate signs aren’t supposed to be on neutral grounds and right-of-ways at anytime. I don’t see how the city can pick and choose what signs get picked up and what signs are allowed to stay up.

4) The De Facto Incumbent in Denial Though he no longer held office, Batt was being judged by the voters as an incumbent official from his time on the council. While there were zoning votes that stirred his determined third-party opposition from his last campaign, Batt did not put his tenure in office in perspective. The issue I felt should have defined Batt’s candidacy was the former “residency rule” that used to be in effect that ostensibly was aimed at keeping city employees residing in Orleans Parish but in practice was used to chase away experienced people from the police department. That rule was symbolic of how political games and corruption have contributed to a decline in the quality of life in New Orleans and Batt had more to do with its repeal after Hurricane Katrina than any other councilman.

5) The Failure to Anticipate Why the Batt campaign didn’t see the return of “Dancing Jay” and plan on countering it is lost on me. How they didn’t see Batt’s backing from the city’s sundry political organizations being thrown back in his face with white voters equally so.

6) Wasted Money. Someone really need to tell me the benefit of those WBOK radio spots or LIFE, IDEA or YAPA ballots going to voters who aren’t inclined to vote for a Republican. Or why a candidate with 100% name recognition needed to spend dough on high-priced billboards.

I make no apologies for personally supporting Batt, though I wish he could have done a better job selling his candidacy to the voters. There have been a lot of bad people who have served in public office in Orleans Parish over the years that did more harm than good to the city, though Batt was not one of those individuals.

Batt was the kind of councilman who could vote for reform-oriented policies without crying while justifying his vote to race-baiters who didn’t think anything was wrong with the city on August 28, 2005.

The Batt campaign is proof that while having a large warchest is helpful, money cannot always buy love or the affections of the electorate and even if you have campaign finances to spare, they should always be spent wisely for maximum effect.

Batt had the misfortune of running afoul people who were willing to back up their grievances with him with time, resources and almost fanatical dedication to the cause of keeping him out off the council. And they showed they could carry a grudge over a long period of time.

Saturday, March 6, 2010

Guidry wins

Guidry wins the election. Democrat Susan Guidry has won the District A seat on the New Orleans City Council.

Republican Jay Batt underperformed in the GOP stronghold of Lakeview barely carrying precincts he had handily won in the primary.

The first Lakeview returns: Guidry wins

Early Lakeview returns are bad for Batt., wining the former Batt strong precinct by a bare majority, indicating that Susan Guidry will likely win the race.

The Early Call on District A, New Orleans

With the assistance of Paul Besse, Robert LoGreco and Nelson Cantrelle, III, the Early Call will have multiple precincts to sample this evening on the District A race with a projected "projection" time at 8:30 PM CST. Check in for updates over the next hour.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Bye-Reggie-Bye?

The New Orleans Saints Super Bowl parade might have been the last time celebrithete running back Reggie Bush donned a Saints jersey in the Crescent City.

Due a staggering $8,000,000 next season under the terms of Bush’s contract, the Saints front office has two choices: pay the cameo superstar or cut him. Trade is not likely an option not because Bush is unwanted by other teams, since his talents are certainly coveted in addition to the marketing bonanza that follows the 4th year player that has yet to make a Pro Bowl but because nobody else would want to assume the running back’s contract.

A renegotiation/restructuring of Bush’s contract is improbable; not because of his stats but because of his stature. Stars like Bush, due to pride and/or perception, don’t take pay cuts. And if they have to settle for one, it’ll be with another team.

One source I won’t identify who is very familiar with the Saints organization mentioned to me just before the playoffs that Bush’s departure as a virtual certainty because the running back wants to return to the west coast, the location of his roots, his interests and his girlfriend.

Bush played high school football in San Diego and moved up the Pacific Coast for college at USC. And though Bush has played professionally in New Orleans, it’s apparent that he has immersed himself in the Crescent City like other Saints players have. Bush isn’t the adopted local icon quarterback Drew Brees is and never will be.

Number nine has supplanted all of the professional sports legends before him owns this town, just like George Brett owns Kansas City and John Elway owns Denver; Reggie Bush just works here.

That said, I don’t mean to discount his charitable work in New Orleans, which has not been inconsiderable, as Bush was donating money to entities struggling to recover from Hurricane Katrina before he had inked his deal with the Saints.

But New Orleans just isn’t his city; and it’s not Kim’s either.

Saints fans shouldn’t take it personally. Nola just isn’t home.

Bush has no shortage of options beyond the Saints. Even with limited play in 2009, Bush was a major contributor to the Saints offense as a running back (averaging a career high 5.6 yards per carry), receiver (7.1 yards per reception) and as a distraction (see the high level of productivity by the other receivers). Bush also scored a combined 8 touchdowns rushing and receiving, including the spectacular “fleur-de-leap” against the Miami Dolphins that made the cover of Sports Illustrated.

The one area where Bush was largely a bust this season was as a punt returner. Bush averaged a meager 4.8 yards per return with two fumbles and no touchdowns. The 2008 season was Bush’s best as a punt returning with a 13.5 yard return average and having taken 3 back for touchdowns.

The divisional playoff game against the Arizona Cardinals was unquestionably his finest in the 2009 post-season; Bush's play in the NFC Championship against the Minnesota Vikings and against the Indianapolis Colts in the Super Bowl were let downs by comparison.

While Bush isn’t a durable player, he is capable of making exciting plays on a limited basis, selling jerseys and attracting klieg lights.

The most natural fit for Bush would be his hometown of San Diego, which is close to LA, USC and KK. Conveniently enough, the Chargers are shorthanded at running back with the release of LaDainian Tomlinson, one cannot help think in part anticipating the arrival of Bush as a free agent.

The second most logical option is a reunion with his former college coach Pete Carroll, who made a hasty departure up the coastline to Seattle.

While Bush will be dearly missed in the Big Easy, the Saints will have an opportunity in the draft to pick up a player that could partially (key word) supplement the dynamo gap left by Reggie’s departure.

The Saints may already have one part in place with the probable return of wide receiver Rod Harper, who impressed the Saints front office and fans with two punts returned for touchdowns in the 2009 preseason but spent all of the regular season either inactive or on injured reserve.

Talk of Tomlinson’s possible singing by the Saints, publicly encouraged by his old Chargers team mate and good friend Brees, wouldn’t replace what Bush takes with him. If anything, Tomlinson’s addition would more probably be an indication that running back Mike Bell’s days with the Saints organization are numbered as the two share a similar running style.

Bush has been a valuable player for the Saints and his contributions to the team on the field, off the field and from a marketing perspective cannot be denied nor discounted.

But Reggie isn’t worth 8 mill. And Reggie isn’t taken a nickel less from the Saints.
Leaving general manager Mickey Loomis with no other choice than, for the second off-season in a row, to cut a popular running back from the roster.

The only question is when.

And so the ReggieWatch begins.