Predictions in the New Orleans City Elections

Just a few prognostications...don't hold me to any of them. I have a sizable bet riding in only one race.

New Moon Over New Orleans

Powered by a strong absentee vote and a backlash against the Nagin Administration that transcends race, Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu will win the office that unsuccessfully pursued in 1994 and 2006.

Business consultant Troy Henry, as the consensus black candidate, will run second followed by John Georges, whose inroads with the black community could not compensate the loss of white support stemming from his harsh comments about popular US Attorney Jim Letten. Rob Couhig, the lone Republican in the race, will finish fourth, fair housing activist James Perry fifth and former judge Nadine Ramsey placing sixth.

Projected percentages:

Mitch Landrieu 50%
Troy Henry 24%
John Georges 13%
Rob Couhig 7%
James Perry 3%
Nadine Ramsey 2%
Others 1%

Fielkow, Clarkson Re-elected

At-Large Council members Arnie Fielkow and Jacquelyn Clarkson will be returned to office in the primary due to the election only featuring three major candidates. Because all the candidates run on one ballot and the electorate can cast two votes, Fielkow and Clarkson will benefit from the second vote distributed by black voters to the two incumbents whose first choice was Cynthia Willard-Lewis, while Willard-Lewis is expected to receive little crossover support from white voters. Lewis would have benefited from a second black candidate of stature on the ballot and stronger Republican candidates splitting the white vote. Four years ago, Clarkson failed to lock up her initial bid for councilman-at-large in the primary because of a split white vote involving two Republican candidates and a two other significant white Democrats.

Batt, Guidry Go to the Second Round

Former Republican Councilmember Jay Batt will face Democrat Susan Guidry in a runoff. Batt has had to contend with opposition from not just the other candidates in the race but also the Anybody But Batt group that spoiled his bid for re-election in 2006 and the Democratic incumbent council member who beat him last time, Shelley Midura. Helping Batt this time around is a repopulated Lakeview area.

Other Council Races
Council member Stacy Head, who in my not so humble opinion OUGHT to be mayor, will be re-elected in District B.

Kristin Palmer, after narrowly losing a bid for District C four years before, will be elected the council over Republican assessor Tom Arnold. Though Arnold has been a long enduring figure in Algiers, he has sustained too much bad publicity from articles in the Times Picayune and his campaign has struggled to gain momentum.
District D voters will return Cynthia Hedge-Morrell. This will be a third term for Morrell, who was elected to post pre-Hurricane Katrina after then-incumbent council member Marlin Gusman was elected criminal sheriff.

District E voters have six candidates to choose from. The district, hit hardest by Hurricane Katrina, includes New Orleans East and the lower Nine. Conventional wisdom says that state representative Austin Badon and former Senator Jon Johnson will be in a runoff, assuming one of the two doesn’t win the spot outright despite the crowded field.

Upset Special: Mauberret to Be Shut Out Runoff

The Times Picayune, who has made punishing assessors that opposed the office’s consolidation newspaper editorial and beat writing policy, will claim another skin on Saturday assessor Claude Mauberret finishes in third place behind Erroll Williams and Janis Lemle.

It should be noted that Williams was recently endorsed by US Senator Mary Landrieu, a peculiar move considering the obscurity of the office Williams is seeking, Landrieu’s own high office and of course the fact that her brother is on the same ballot for mayor. The Times Picayune article that heralded the endorsement made reference to the possibility that Louisiana’s senior senator might have been fulfilling a political deal, as her brother is on the LIFE ticket, which is closely affiliated with Williams and former mayor Marc Morial.

Lemle has the backing of the Times Picayune and the “I Quit” political group that targeted assessors for defeat in the previous election in a bid to jump-start consolidation of the offices.

You Best Your ASSessor There’s Media Bias

While the “high-and-mightys” at Howard Avenue have endorsed many candidates in the city elections, the trifecta the Times Picayune is pushing the hardest are Landrieu, Lemle and Palmer.

Reviewing the Saints' Greatest Victory...Yet

There was no one individual that single-handedly won for the New Orleans Saints organization its first NFC Championship as the historic victory in the Superdome was as much a team effort as any this season.

Franchise quarterback Drew Brees racked up a modest 197 yards, connecting on 17 of 31 passing attempts, a relatively pedestrian 55% completion rate that is below the NFL record of 70.6% he set in the regular season. On the typically impressive side, Brees threw three touchdown passes and no interceptions against one of the league’s best defenses. Brees also didn’t turnover the ball on the ground either, recovering one of his two fumbles while Pro-Bowl guard Jahri Evans saved the other fumble the quarterback coughed up.

Speaking of Evans, he and his fellow offensive linemen did an excellent job protecting Brees against the Vikings’ fearsome foursome, surrendering only one sack against the NFL’s best defense in that category.

Running back Pierre Thomas, the Black and Gold’s discount-store superstar, once again showed that the team’s front-office dodged a bullet when they were unable to put together a Draft Day trade to mortgage the team’s future to pick up Ohio State running back Beanie Wells.

Thomas ran for 61 yards and a touchdown and caught a pass and bumped and rumbled for 38 yards to the end zone. Thomas’s two best plays of the game didn’t even involve him scoring. Substituting as kick returner for an injured Courtney Roby, Thomas ran back the overtime kick-off for 40 yards. A few plays later, Thomas leaped for two yards on a 4th and 1 that kept the drive alive en route to Garrett Hartley game-winning field goal.

Hartley more than made amends for missing what would have been a game winning field goal against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that would have locked up homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

Hartley’s splitting the uprights sent the Saints to the Super Bowl in overtime. The second-year kicker whose season could best be described as star-crossed, having missed the first four games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, claimed he dreamed that he would win the game for his team. So rattled by this vision, Hartley called his father in Texas in the dead of night to share his prophecy.

Since the kicking game has haunted Saints head coach Sean Payton more than any other aspect of the team since he fired kicker John Carney in 2007, Payton couldn’t have been happier or more relieved that the man whose services he decided to retain came through for the Black and Gold after the team decided to once again cut Carney from the active roster.

Finally there was Reggie Bush. Reggie, Reggie, Reggie (no exclamation points).
Looking to work some magic on a punt return late in the second quarter, the celebrithete chose to run when the smart play was to call a fair catch as a Minnesota Viking defender was going full steam ahead in his direction.

Instead of looking like a star, Bush looked like a fool, giving the ball to the Vikings deep in Saints territory, specifically, the home team’s ten yard line. Bush’s name was saved from eternal abomination thanks to a chance fumble recovery two plays later. As a friend of mine texted me during the game, it was the equivalent of getting a call from the governor just as the executioner was about to stick the needle in number 25’s arm.

In the Fourth Quarter, Bush made amends on a short pass from Brees that sent the running back bouncing into the pylon out of bounds. After the play having been ruled only a four-yard gain, short of the end zone, the play was reviewed and declared a touchdown.

Aside from the aforementioned, Bush had an uneventful day, gaining all eight yards on seven attempts on the ground and a 28 yard reception.

And then there was the defense.

The Saints defense forced only four punts. But they forced five turnovers, the most notable being cornerback Tracy Porter’s interception as the Vikings were positioning themselves for a game-winning field goal in regulation.

Prior to Porter’s huge pick, the Vikings, who were on the Saints’ 33 yard line, were penalized five-yards for having twelve men in the huddle.

That penalty likely saved the Saints’ Super Bowl hopes as the Vikings, already in field goal range, would have run the ball and not passed on that play.

In addition to the aforementioned Favre fumble, the Saints defense scooped up two others.

Finally there were those wearing black and gold, not on the field but in the stands.

Having never been in an NFL locker room and not personally knowing any professional football players, I don’t know the true value of so-called bulletin board material. But I can attest to what it does to a rowdy fan base when it is directed towards them.

It’s true after enduring 40-plus years of mostly disappointing play on the field and a natural catastrophe that wrecked the city and, perhaps without an assist from the commissioner’s office and a certain self-interested egomaniac owner in north Texas, almost robbed New Orleans of its team, the Black and Gold faithful don’t require much more nudging to get them on their feet and making noise than being one game away from the Promised Land of pro-football.
But Minnesota Vikings coach Brad Childress boasted he had a plan to make Saints fans “sit on their hands down there” when addressing the matter of playing in an unfriendly environment.

Motivated with a love for their team and spite for their taunter, the Saints fans never let up. Childress proved he would have been a better heal-wrestler than a smart coach with his challenge to the Saints’ fan-base.

The Saints fans kept bringing the noise throughout the game; the Saints players rewarded them by never giving up and hanging in the game regardless how ominous things looked.

In my preview to the NFC Championship contest, I wrote that the Vikings were a better team but that the Saints would come out with a win. When looking at first downs (Minnesota doubled the Saints), time of possession (Vikings had an eight minute edge), passing yards and rushing yards, the Vikings did indeed play better.

However it was the New Orleans Saints, who played with heart, mojo, determination and a never-say-die attitude, that made the bigger plays and consequently will go on to the big game against Archie Manning’s son in Miami.

Race for Nola Mayor: If You're Not First, You're Last

Somewhere in the bowels of the Saenger Theatre, there’s a large woman with a Viking helmet about to belt out a high note on the New Orleans race for mayor.

Mitch Landrieu, who holds what is officially the state’s second highest office, is on the precipice of winning Louisiana’s second most powerful office.

Blame on the Saints. Blame it on the Super Bowl. Blame it on Mardi Gras. Blame it on buyer’s remorse from the previous city election. Blame it on the fact that none of Landrieu’s opponents have convinced Orleans Parish voters that they’d do a better job.

It doesn’t matter.

Nobody has come close to running even with Landrieu in the polls. That includes the time before he announced he would not run and after he abruptly got in.

According to the latest poll numbers, Landrieu is within striking distance (mid-40s) of winning outright and as his candidacy continues to build momentum, the inevitability of his election could make perception a reality.

For a guy who’s hoping his third try is the charm, Landrieu has benefited from a number of breaks.

First, businesswoman Leslie Jacobs, after vowing to remain in the race even after Landrieu’s surprise entrance, dropped out. Jacobs, whose pre-paid media continued to air days after her withdrawal, was a major threat to Landrieu as she possessed the most potential to raid his liberal white political base.

Secondly, the departure of State Senator Ed Murray from the field was a major boost to the Landrieu effort. Though he polled poorly and was out of money at the start of the new year, Murray was considered the leading black candidate and many figured that the African-American legislator would face Landrieu in the runoff.

Murray was the lone black candidate that had demonstrated significant cross-demographic support. Many of Murray’s white supporters melded into the Landrieu camp shortly thereafter and the belief that Landrieu was unbeatable began to take hold.

Thirdly, there was the Christmas gift Georges delivered to Landrieu when the businessman made some ill-advised statements (or as he called them “jokes”) at a meeting of the Orleans Democratic Parish Executive Committee.

Why Georges bothered to make a pitch to meeting of a partisan body that would be hostile to a former Republican contributor was perplexing.

Why he decided to speak ill (or joke ill) of US Attorney Jim Letten, perhaps the most respected figure in the community not wearing a Saints jersey, was bizarre.

While Letten might not be popular with black voters as he is with white voters (one must assume Team Georges had polled this matter before a predominantly black political group), that Georges did not think word of his talk would get out (or be recorded and shared on the internet) is astounding.

Even Georges’s recent endorsement by District Attorney Leon Cannizzaro won’t mitigate the damage did by calling for the removal of one of the few people in government in the 504 area code who enjoys the near full confidence of the public.

With Republican Rob Couhig’s low-profile paid media presence, Landrieu reaped the biggest benefit from Georges’s Letten smack-talk.

Business consultant Troy Henry, who is new to the ballot but no stranger to City Hall, immediately benefited when Murray bailed on the race as Henry became the leading black candidate overnight.

Unfortunately for Henry, he followed up this political jackpot with a bungling press conference that harkened to Richard Pennington’s infamous Lundi Gras media event.

The initial word was that Henry was dropping out. Then it was leaked that Henry was staying in the race and the press conference was being held to announce a major endorsement, presumably Murray’s.

But when he delivered nothing more than a screed about why news outlets shouldn’t assume the runoff for mayor would be between two white candidates (that possibility ended the second Murray withdrew), Henry lost credibility with the media (who can attack you or worse yet simply ignore you) while making the lieutenant governor more palatable for white conservatives generally distrustful of any candidate with the surname Landrieu.

Despite the debacle at his “coming out”, Henry remains the strongest black candidate in the field since fair-housing activist James Perry never recovered from his first media buy featuring people hurling bleeped-out profanities in an attempt to creatively make an argument to reject the “same-old, same-old”.

If Perry’s goal for the ad was to make his presence known, he succeeded. But then again streaking down Saint Charles Avenue would also draw attention with equal political benefits.

Though the final numbers won’t be pretty for Perry, he should be credited for doing more homework than most if not all of his rivals on city issues and for running an innovative campaign that embraced technology. Regrettably for Perry, New Orleans has never been accused of being a cutting-edge city and his tactics failed to gain traction with voters conditioned to the old way of city politics.

So where what of the numbers?

Historically, black voters have a higher level of participation in the mayoral runoff than they do the primary so voting strength should be close to dead-even on Super Bowl-eve.

If Landrieu is polling at 40% in the black community, then the lieutenant governor needs to draw only 60% of the white vote. Simple enough right?

Not really.

White conservatives that were resentful of his family’s brand of liberal city and federal politics sank Landrieu’s last mayoral run.

The key for Landrieu is to parochialize the election and not let his US Senator sister’s involvement in ObamaCare and the controversy that surrounded her blessing of it to alienate white voters.

After doing the political equivalent of roller-skating down a flight of steps, Georges has focused on one thing and one thing alone: stopping Landrieu from taking it in the first.

The Republican-turned-Independent-turned-Democrat has had trouble creating an identity for himself, one day bragging about his role in the Harry Lee documentary and another palling with former State Representative Sherman Copelin.

And then there was his attempt at stand-up comedy before the Orleans DPEC that could have only gone worse had a frothing Michael Richards written his material.

The New Orleans Saints’ first appearance in the Super Bowl could be as much of a blessing for Georges as it has been a curse for Landrieu’s combined opposition. With the game being played the day after the mayoral primary, Georges has the resources and perhaps the time to reintroduce himself to the voters, quite a few whom won’t be casting a ballot until the runoff.

Having tripped over his own words throughout the primary, Georges could become a major threat to Landrieu in what will be a brand new election in a second round.

But Georges has one other problem: Couhig.

Defying the political realities of running as a Republican in a city that gave John McCain a whopping 19% for president and further tethered by his previous endorsement of Nagin four years ago, Couhig has developed a loyal following from his radio talk show stint on WRNO and his guest host spots on WWL.

While Couhig will have a tough time making a runoff, the former New Orleans Zephyrs owner is in a prime position to deny Georges second-place as the Republican’s candidacy is a repository for anti-Landrieu protest votes, thus isolating them from Georges and indirectly aiding Henry.

Perry and former judge Nadine Ramsey likely won’t bleed Henry as much as what Couhig alone will draw from Georges.

Henry could slip into a runoff caused by Georges’s negative media carpet-bombing on Landrieu and by consolidating anti-Landrieu black votes.

Henry won’t receive anywhere near the same level of white support that Nagin garnered in 2006 due in no small part to Henry’s own controversial press conference, though he might not need it.

If there is a runoff, expect Henry to base his candidacy on diminishing black representation in city government.

Since Hurricane Katrina, there has been a drastic shift in political demographics in New Orleans including a school board with only two blacks members out of seven positions, a white district attorney, a Vietnamese-American congressman and a city council that will be 5-2 white if Arnie Fielkow and Jackie Clarkson are re-elected to their at-large positions.

Right or wrong, the issue of race will resonate with many black voters in a runoff.

Mayor Nagin has not so subtly broadcast in public appearances and paid media that having a black mayor equals protecting “the franchise”, even though neither has anything to do with each other unless Lenader Perez was on the ballot.

But even the rosiest scenario for Henry is predicated upon Landrieu falling short of a majority. If Landrieu hits 50%+1, the only thing second place gets you is a byline in a future obituary.

To borrow a line from Will Ferrell’s Talladega Nights, if you don’t run first, you may as well be last.

Previewing the Biggest Game in Saints History

Early Sunday evening, the New Orleans Saints will play the most important game in the franchise's existence

If course, if the Black and Gold are victorious, the biggest game in franchise history will be played in south Florida two weeks later.

Minnesota and New Orleans are polar opposites. One has ice fishing, the other every other kind of fishing imaginable.

One has a rich Scandinavian culture and heritage, the other French, Spanish and West African with significant strains of Irish and Italian mixed in.

There are three things Minnesota and New Orleans share: outsiders both think people in both locales talk funny, though in much different ways; the Mississippi River rolls near both of their football stadiums; and nasty playoff experiences when the two have met, at least from the Saints’ perspective.

While the Atlanta Falcons are the Saints’ biggest rival, there’s no team the Saints have more post-season history than with the Vikings. Yes, even more so than the hated Chicago Bears.

It was the Vikings that faced the Saints in their first ever playoff game. The Black and Gold’s time in their first post-season was brief as the Vikings eliminated them after a 44-10 shellacking in the Superdome.

After winning their first playoff game against the Saint Louis Rams in 2000, the Saints were eliminated in the second (divisional) round by the Vikings in Minneapolis.

Two years later a sloppy two-point conversion by Minnesota quarterback Daunte Culpepper on the second to last play of the game proved to be the death knell for the Saints’ playoff hopes in the 2002 season.

In other words, the Saints have some serious unfinished business with the Vikings.

The Match Up

On paper, the Minnesota Vikings are the better team.

The Vikings have a potent, albeit not on the same level as the Saints’, offense led by the greatest redneck athlete of all time, quarterback Brett Favre. Along with the future Hall of Famer, the Vikings have running back Adrian Peterson, wide receivers Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, and Sidney Rice and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe.

In regular season play, the Vikings’ offense had the league’s 5th highest yards per game average (379.6) and were second in points scored per game (29.4), behind the Saints. The Vikings had fairly balanced offense, ranking 8th in passing yards (259.8) and 13th in rushing yards (119.9) per game.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Vikings led the NFL with 48 sacks, 13 more than the Saints. The allowed the 10th fewest points per game (19.5) and the 6th fewest yards per game (305.5). The Minnesota defense was better at stopping the run than the pass, giving up the 2nd least rushing yards per game (87.1) but ranked 19th against the pass, surrendering an average of 218.4 yards per game.

The Saints had the most prolific offense in the NFL in points (31.9) and yards (403.8) per game. Like the Vikings, the Saints managed to spread their offense around, ranking 4th in passing (272.2) and 6th (131.6) ground yards per game.

Defensively the Saints did not have the kind of overnight turnaround most fans had hoped for when the organization landed the services of highly coveted “free agent” defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. At least concerning reducing yards and points allowed.

The Saints defense was 20th in points allowed (21.3) and 25th in total yards (357.8) per game. The Black and Gold defense were only marginally better at stopping the run, 21st in the league (122.2 yards per game) than they were at containing the pass as they were 26th allowing an average of 235.6 passing yards per game. As previously mentioned, the Vikings defense had over a dozen more sacks than the Saints defense.

Where Williams had his impact and where the Saints defense has excelled is in the turnover game.

The Saints defense snagged 26 picks, 3rd in the league, and forced 15 fumbles with 13 recovered. The Saints defense scored 8 touchdowns from turnovers.

While the Saints defense is not adept at stopping plays, they proved to be among the best at making plays.

In contrast, the Minnesota defense ranked 26th in interceptions with a relatively paltry 11. The Vikings defense had more success forcing fumbles, knocking out 23 from their opponents though they only recovered 13. The Vikings defense only scored a single touchdown.

Face-Offs

Darren Sharper (et al.) v. Brett Favre It’ll be a duel between two veterans whose likenesses will one day join those of other greats in Canton one day. The Saints free safety has not been shy about wanting to meet his former team in the NFC Championship game. Will the Saints secondary frustrate the gunslinger and bail out a Saints offense that will likely struggle against the second coming of the Purple People Eaters or will Favre add another chapter in the story of the greatest quarterback in the game.

The Saints O-Line v. PPE2 Members of the Saints offensive line, the most thankless job on the field, have received one of the highest compliments in their profession with three invitations to the 2010 Pro Bowl. Hopefully the honor will be only ceremonial as the selected players will be prepping for a far bigger game the next week. However they will be tested like no other time this season against a fearsome foursome that has wrecked havoc on opposing quarterbacks with a combined 31 sacks. Can Saints quarterback Drew Brees get enough time to burn the Viking secondary or will Brees end up being the one with the pants on the ground and the football in a Minnesota defender’s hands?

Of Interest

Welcome to the Big Time Adrian Saints wide receiver Robert Meachem, who had a breakout season, suffered an ankle injury against the Arizona Cardinals in the divisional playoff game. While Meachem’s absence will be filled by the returning Lance Moore, a favorite target of Brees, concern about the severity of Meachem’s injury led to the cutting of quasi-(and now fully) retired running back Deuce McAllister and the promotion from the practice squad of wide receiver Adrian Arrington.

The Saints traded up in the 2007 draft to pick up the Michigan wide-out who spent his first season on injured reserve and his second season on the practice squad. Saints fans on the blogosphere have been obsessing with Arrington on a level approaching Reggie Bush’s stratospheric expectations, except number 25 has played in a game that wasn’t in preseason. Saints wide receivers coach Curtis Johnson highly touted Arrington’s promise on a sorts radio show, only feeding the frenzy.

That said, Mr. Arrington this is your chance. Whatever you do in the post-season will weigh heavily concerning your future with the Saints organization. Solid play against the Vikings could help compensate for a weak 2010 preseason. On the other hand, dropped passes or fumbles could mean you won’t have that opportunity. Keep in mind that wide receiver Rod Harper, who had a near Pierre Thomas-esque preseason, is going to be hunting for a full time gig after he gets off IR.

Run the Damned Ball! Here’s something of interest: in the Saints three, count them three, playoff wins, they have rushed the ball no less than 29 times. TWENTY-NINE TIMES!

In significant contrast in all SIX of their post-season losses, the Saints have rushed the ball LESS than 23…that’s TWENTY-THREE times. Actually it’s worse than that as TWENTY-TWO was the high-water mark of the losses- against the Falcons when the Black and Gold lost by touchdown. Against the Chicago Bears in 2007, the Saints ran the ball only TWELVE times in a loss after rushing it THIRTY-FOUR times against the Philadelphia Eagles in a win the week before.

Will Shockey Play? The tight-end’s presence in the Dallas game was sorely missed. If Jeremy Shockey, who did not practice on Wednesday, is unable or limited against the Vikings on Sunday, Brees will have a tough evening.

The Oddsmaker’s Take and the Blogger’s

Danny Sheridan of USA Today has the Saints as a 3.5 favorite, not bad considering the Saints’ playoff history with the Vikings and the Minnesota’s stout defense.

As I said earlier, I do think the Vikings are a more complete team. They have a comparable offense and a vastly superior pass rush.

But the Saints have a few intangible advantages.

One, for the first time, the Black and Gold will be playing in their first NFC Championship game in the Superdome. Four years ago, the Saints went to Soldier Field to take on a team that I did not think was better than them. And to this day, I believe the 2006 Saints were better than the 2006 Chicago Bears; the difference was the Bears PLAYED better.

Having the crowd at the Bears’ back and in the Saints offense’s ears had an impact.

Secondly, there’s maturity. Most the Saints players on the roster have been there already. The Saints were unprepared for the weather and field conditions in their last NFC Championship appearance. Then and now, I blame Coach Sean Payton for not doing a better job breaking in his team. The cold took its toll in dropped passes and four fumbles.

Another problem with the 2007-2008 Payton game plan was an over reliance on the pass. Last season’s road game at Tampa Bay was I believe a turning point, or as President Barack Obama would call it, a teachable moment.

This season we have seen the benefits of investing in a ground game. Payton then had all of the tools he has now, as Thomas, Bush, Mike Bell and Lynell Hamilton were on the roster or practice squad. Payton just opted not to use them.

Another area where the Saints have grown up is resiliency. The Miami and Washington contests were equally frustrating as they were inspiring. They played four quarters and found ways to win. They made their own breaks and put themselves in position to take advantage of the other team’s bad luck.

And it should be said that Bush has found his groove playing the role of a cameo superstar that bedevils opposing defenses as a player and as a decoy.

In summation, this Saints squad, from coaches to players, is a far better team than the one that was previously a mere game away from Bobby Hebert having to wear a dress.

Better might not be the best way to describe this team. Best ever is more fitting.

Finally there is that one thing the Saints have that no other team seems to: mojo.

You can also call it magic, soul, gris-gris luck or just being blessed. They’ve got something going you can’t teach or coach.

The Saints secondary has played like special forces, Brees has been as accurate as any conventional weapon stockpiled by the Pentagon and the o-line would have made Leonidas and his resolute Spartans proud.

To borrow a line from Denny Green, I’m not going to crown ‘em. The Super Bowl is another matter altogether. But I do think this team will play in the big game and that’s progress.

The most climactic moment in Saints history was not the reopening of the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina. That was a rebirth of a team, a stadium and a community.

No, the apogee of excitement for the Saints happened under the watch of a coach I don’t hold in very high regard, Jim Haslett.

Bono nor Green Day have nothing on Jim Henderson, the voice of the Saints, when he screamed “Hakim dropped the ball! Hakim dropped the ball!”. That is the highpoint in the soul of a true Saints fan that witnessed it.

It didn’t matter that the Vikings easily dispatched the Saints the next weekend in the divisional round. That Saints team was so riddled with injuries that it was held together with chewing gum and duct-tape. They weren’t going to the Super Bowl and every objective Saints fan, the few of us out there, knew it. But that didn’t matter.

That moment told us we weren’t cursed, as the Pat Robertson of football analysts might have hypothesized with much more credibility before that game.

With all that said, and I realize I am now going on like US Senator Scott Brown, I believe the Saint will beat the Minnesota Vikings this weekend with the margin being determined by the level of involvement by number 88 in the game.

So if Shockey plays, give the points; if Shockey looks to be limited, take them.

Either way I believe the Saints will return to the scene of their mid-season miracle hoping to experience a second.

Who Dat!

And Now For Something Completely Different: A Liberal's Take on the Scott Brown Victory

Note: The following was written by Bill Phillips, a Democratic political consultant in Washington State. Mr. Phillips is a graduate of Louisiana State University and a former officer in the LSU College Democrats. His views DO NOT in ANY way reflect those of the proprietor of this blog.

The Hangover

Champagne flowed freely in GOP circles as Scott Brown, largely unknown just weeks ago, became the newest United States Senator from Massachusetts, replacing liberal icon Ted Kennedy. That Kennedy made health care his life's work and Brown won after vowing to kill the Democratic reform plan only made conservatives' bubbly tickle their noses more pleasantly. But does policy even matter this year?

Make no mistake; the GOP has had some cause to celebrate lately. Gubernatorial wins in Virginia and New Jersey, followed by what was considered unthinkable in Massachusetts as recently as New Years Day, have pumped the elephants full of confidence as a national mood of incumbent distrust, in place since 2006, shows no sign of abating until the economy gets back on track and jobs return.

The Dow has surged back over 10,000 even as unemployment rises. Americans see the wealthy getting richer while their own fortunes decline, and righteous anger continues to sear the political landscape. This creates dangerous times for the party in power, leading to celebration and talk of a comeback for Republicans – even though Republican policies of unregulated corporate excess were largely responsible for the downturn. Fair? Of course not, but no one said politics plays by rules of fairness. President Obama can attest to that, as his personal favorable rating remains very high even though his party is getting waylaid at the polls.

Republicans have successfully campaigned against incumbents since the 2008 Obama win, culminating in the first GOP Senator from Massachusetts in over 30 years – albeit one who is pro-choice and considered even more liberal than his Democratic opponent in some circles. Is this truly the sign of a resurgent Republican party, or do Republican gains simply continue an anti-incumbent mood in place since 2006, when voters cleaned House and provided Democrats a solid Senate majority?

Until we see incumbent Republicans in swing states re-elected by large margins, or Republican-held seats withstanding strong Democratic challenges, we have no real way of knowing. This hasn't stopped mainstream media from breathlessly reporting on the imminent demise of donkeys everywhere, but the inarguable reality is Republican incumbents have had little or nothing on the line in recent elections. GOP losses would have been somewhat expected, while victories were considered stunning. An anti-incumbent mood this November could easily sweep out as many Republicans as Democrats under current circumstances.

Republicans have not established a consistent national 'brand'. Not surprising, since the RNC would be hard-pressed to explain concisely what it stands for aside from more tax cuts and less regulation, the very ingredients that spawned our current economic crisis. The right is ideologically schizophrenic, fearing a big-government 'nanny state' while simultaneously waging obnoxious morality crusades against gay rights and reproductive freedom. Tea Party protesters carry signs excoriating the TARP bailouts, which were bipartisan in nature and begun under George W. Bush. These are the kinds of inconsistencies Scott Brown skillfully avoided, claiming only to be an outsider who would bring his brand of common sense and change to Washington. Sound familiar?

The problem with this strategy, as Democrats have learned over the past year, is that you're no longer an outsider once hired to be on the inside. Whatever you're trying to fix becomes your problem almost from the minute you take office. Republicans who see 2010 as the beginning of the end of the Democratic Party may well reap the ire of an anti-incumbent yet Obama-approving electorate in 2012 which, incidentally, is when Scott Brown must face voters again, presumably without an inept opponent to help his chances.

Bill Phillips is currently Chair of the Snohomish County Democrats in the state of Washington. He is Director and Senior Consultant for Sound Strategies, a not-for-profit political consulting firm specializing in local races. He attended Louisiana State University and has been a Democratic activist since 1988.

The Defeat of Democratic Arrogance

Perhaps Democrat Martha Coakley should have played “The World Turned Upside Down” at the “concession” party.

Only a few weeks ago, not many people outside of Scott Brown saw much opportunity for a Republican victory for the senate seat that had been occupied by Ted Kennedy beginning in November 1962 until his death last year.

But on the 364th day of Barack Obama’s presidency, the voters of Massachusetts made history and dealt a stunning blow to the White House by electing a Republican to the US Senate in the biggest political upset in decades.

What drove the electorate of a state that had gone to Obama by a margin of 62% to 36% to embrace a Republican who made no secret of his determination to stand athwart of the Obama agenda as Senator 41?

Let’s start with the candidates: Brown was as exceptional of Republican nominee as Coakley was an inept candidate.

While Brown came off as anything but a typical Republican stuffed shirt, the Democratic attorney general did not hide for disdain for retail campaigning.

Coakley undoubtedly lost a number of hockey fans and came off as a snob for mocking her opponent’s pressing the flesh outside of the Winter Classic, the NHL’s traveling annual outdoor hockey match that has become a major hit with the sports fans and just so happened to be held this year in Boston.

“As opposed to standing outside Fenway Park? In the cold? Shaking hands?”, remarked Coakley when asked whether she was working hard enough while referencing her Republican opponent’s willingness to engage in such pedestrian politicking.

Then there was incident where a Coakley supporter right in front of the candidate shoved a conservative reporter down to the ground.

There were plenty other gaffes made by Coakley and her campaign that the Obama political team will not so discreetly put out on the street to distance their folks from the historic defeat.

But even if Obama operatives were not guilty of running a poor campaign, the policy cornerstone of his presidency proved to be a millstone around Coakley’s neck as the voters of Massachusetts rejected ObamaCare in policy and process.

How can I say this? Because the Democrats tried to make the election a referendum on health care.

The health care plan’s devilish details and the manner by which it had been bulldozed through Congress while the president and his allies disingenuously proclaimed that the process has been transparent was insulting to the public.

Voters in Massachusetts aren’t conservative in their voting tendencies, but they’re not fools and even a silver tongued orator can’t persuade most people that 2+2=5.

This was also a rejection by blue state voters of the blatant nine-figure “incentives” dangled in front of US Senators from “purple states” in order for the Democrats in the US Senate to corral the votes needed to pass ObamaCare.

Finally, this was a rejection of the machine politics that led to the manipulation of Massachusetts election law to conform the conveniences of the national Democratic Party.

Back in 2004, the Democrats in the state legislature changed the rules on senatorial succession when there was concern that Republican Governor Mitt Romney could be in position to appoint a fellow Republican to replace “president-elect” John Kerry in Congress’ upper chamber.

After Ted Kennedy’s death, the Democratic-controlled state legislature once again changed the rules, this time to accomodate the passage of President Barack Obama’s agenda.

Ironically and justly, the law of unintended consequences kicked in and those who custom-built laws to based upon party and not governing principle got precisely what they deserved: plenty of egg on their face and a Republican US Senator.

Adding additional fuel to the fire were the words of Democrats so blinded with self-righteousness and partisan obsession, that one had to think they were ranting in a vacuum.

MSNBC personality Ed Schultz proclaimed on his radio show that if he lived in Massachusetts he’d vote ten times and would cheat “to keep the bastards out”.

Then there was talk of Massachusetts officials making a point of dragging out Brown’s certification as the winner, thus providing gubernatorial appointee Paul Kirk more time in office to rubber-stamp Democratic legislation.

Democrats elected to Congress have been seated expeditiously before all of their paperwork was in order as recently in the upstate New York congressional race where the Democratic victor had a far narrower margin than Brown and any delay in swearing in Brown could further taint an Obama agenda that has already been setting off Geiger counters with its political radioactivity.

And then there was the line that defined what the race was really about: whose Senate seat was it? Did it belong to the public or was it an heirloom of a state political icon to be willed down to any given Democrat?

On Tuesday night, the people reclaimed their property.

The significance of this election regarding the Obama agenda cannot be overstated for this reason: if a Democratic US Senate candidate isn’t safe in Massachusetts, then where exactly are they safe?

With her campaign for US Senator ended, Ms. Coakley will probably sleep well tonight. California US Senator Barbara Boxer probably won’t have as restful of a slumber.

Saints Playoffs Week One- The Reggie Bush Show

The New Orleans Saints offense kept the ball on the ground; their defense kept it out of Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald’s hands; and between the both of them, the team has kept the road to the Super Bowl going through Bourbon Street.

Head coach Sean Peyton won his second playoff game in four seasons and will bring his team to its second ever NFC Championship game, though this one in the far friendlier confines of the Louisiana Superdome.

There’s no questioning the significance of the first round playoff bye. The Saints’ struggles are largely because of the injury toll they racked up while pulling rabbits out of their helmets towards the end of their 13 game winning streak and during their 3 game losing streak. The two weeks off, courtesy of the meaningless Week 17 game and the bye, gave key players (tight end Jeremy Shockey, wide receiver Lance Moore, running back Pierre Thomas, etc.) badly needed time to heal.

The Saints squad that took the turf on Saturday afternoon was the most complete since the Miami Dolphins game way back in Week Seven. The Saints weren’t rusty; they were healthy and they played like the same team that handily defeated the Philadelphia Eagles and all three Empire State teams.

Though the Saints played excellent ball all around, from passing to punting to running, one player in particular truly stole the show.

What I Liked

No Keeping Up with Reggie Number 25 reminded everyone that his name is Bush, not bust. The resident celebri-thete shined on the post-season stage with an 83 yard punt return for a touchdown, a 46 yard run to the end zone and another 36 yards in his four other rushing attempts for an average of 16 yards (!) per carry. Bush proved that he is a play maker, a game changer and worth his 2nd overall pick. One could say that Bush played as if he was auditioning, but that’s for a post-season column.

First Rate Secondary The Saints fielded their first-string secondary for the first time since mid-season and their presence was felt by Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner and his talented receiver squad. Warner passed for just over 200 yards and had no touchdowns. Officially, Warner was picked off only once by Saints defensive end Will Smith though free safety Darren Sharper snatched a pass that was later throw out because of a roughing the passer penalty. Cornerback Randall Gay came up big stripping the ball from wide receiver Jerheme Urban. Sharper recovered the ball and the offense converted the turnover into six points on a Brees to Shockey 17 yard touchdown pass.

Prior to the strip, the Warner to Urban pass was for 28 yards, his longest “completion” of the game. It was that kind of day for Warner.

Drew Dat! Saints quarterback Drew Brees had his standard outstanding performance, throwing three touchdowns, completing 23 of 32 passes (72%) for 247 yards and no interceptions. To say Brees was dearly missed in the Carolina throw-away game two weeks ago would be a gross understatement; that the Saints would not be in the playoffs without him is undeniable.

What Me Hurt? While I didn’t hold my breath every time he carried the ball, I’ll admit that I made a point of straining my eyes looking for blood on the field whenever running back Pierre Thomas got tackled. After suffering broken ribs against Tampa Bay three weeks ago, number 23 showed his durability running for 52 yards on 13 carries.

Props for the Junior Member of the Running Committee Big running back Lynell Hamilton was properly utilized getting into the end zone on a one yard run. Though he’s the fourth running back, Hamilton has the size and the power to pound the ball through on short yardage plays against a stacked defensive line.

And last but not least…

DEEEEEEEEEUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCEEEEEEEE

Perhaps one of the best ways the front office could light a fire under the fans after four weeks removed from the team’s last win, the signing of Saints running back Deuce McAllister, the most popular player to ever don a helmet with a fleur-de-lis, created instant enthusiasm and celebration.

Though more than a few people were disappointed as it became clear that Deuce’s role on the roster would be ceremonial and not as a truly active player, the beloved running back got the Black and Gold excited and noisy, much to the consternation of the Arizona offense. As the Saints organization has pulled their fair share of boners, including cutting popular fullback Mike Karney on the eve of his wedding, placing McAllister on the active roster and on the sidelines shows an increasing sensitivity to some of the most loyal fans in the league.

ZERO That being the number of sacks the Saints’ offensive line gave up to an Arizona defense that ranked 6th in the regular season.

What I Didn’t Like

The Obligatory Big Yard Rushing Score A 2009 New Orleans Saints tradition I could really do without. The Saints defense gave up a 70 yard touchdown run by running back Tim Hightower on the Cardinals’ first offensive play of the game. The early big run is so common that many Saints fans were nonplussed by a similar play that marked the beginning of the end of the New England Patriots’ post-season.

Disrespect for Kurt Warner Had I been wearing a hat on Saturday evening, I would have removed it out of respect when Warner left the field.

The Arizona Cardinals quarterback should be in the Hall of Fame for a number of reasons: his rise from bagging groceries to Super Bowl MVP, his perseverance as a star player and his universally recognized class and character working with developmentally challenged people and the Special Olympics.

That said, when Warner took a stiff hit from Saints defensive end Bobby McCray after an interception and temporarily left the game in the first half, some Saints fans decided to taunt the legendary passer as he ambled to the locker room.

Cognizant that this could have been Warner’s final football game, I reprimanded a Saints fan wearing mock religious attire (I reckon his “Breesus” shirt was in the wash) that was hurling insults at number 13.